Trend Analysis
- Price is trading below the 200 moving averages (MA), indicating a bearish trend.
- 390 MA at 1.4370 is acting as a long-term resistance.
- Lower highs and lower lows suggest a continuation of the downtrend.
- The recent sell-off has led to price consolidation near 1.4286.
Volume Analysis
- Volume data is not available, but price action suggests weak bullish attempts.
- Lack of strong volume signals that buyers are not stepping in yet.
- Increased selling pressure on breakdowns, confirming bearish momentum.
Upcoming Events to Watch
- US & Canada economic data: Employment reports, GDP growth, and inflation figures.
- Central bank announcements: Interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve & Bank of Canada.
- Oil prices impact: As Canada is an oil-exporting nation, crude oil price movements may affect CAD.
Observations
- RSI (33.51): Approaching oversold zone, potential for short-term bounce.
- CCI (-202.65): Strong bearish momentum, indicating downward pressure.
- MACD: Bearish crossover, showing continued weakness.
- ADX (17.23): Weak trend strength, suggesting consolidation before the next move.
Final Takeaway
- Bearish bias continues, but oversold conditions could lead to a temporary pullback.
- A breakdown below 1.4280 could trigger more selling pressure.
- Bulls need a break above 1.4342 (200 MA) to regain control.
Breakout Strategy (Bullish)
- Entry: Above 1.4342 | Stop-loss: Below 1.4320.
- Targets: 1.4370 / 1.4400 / 1.4450.
- Volume confirmation: Needs strong buying interest above 1.4342.
Breakdown Strategy (Bearish)
- Entry: Below 1.4280 | Stop-loss: Above 1.4320.
- Targets: 1.4250 / 1.4200 / 1.4150.
- Volume confirmation: Increased selling pressure below 1.4280.
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