Saturday, May 20, 2017

Indian Market Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017

Indian Market Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017



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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017


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The benchmark indices are likely to trade in a narrow range next week, with global markets and quarterly corporate results likely to lend Direction. Also, investors would study the impact of the goods and services tax and buy stocks in segments for which rates are largely favourable. We feel the stock markets will be steady ahead of the expiry of the May futures and options series on Thursday, and investors won't be building fresh aggressive positions. Next week, the Nifty 50 is seen between its crucial support levels of 9370 and 9500. The initial jump in the S&P BSE Sensex today to a lifetime high was due to a rise in the fast moving consumer goods sector on broadly lower rates in the new tax regime. These stocks closed off the day's highs, an indication that investors would not aggressively buy at higher rates. The S&P BSE Sensex ended up 30.13 points, or 0.1% higher at 30464.92 points today, after having hit a lifetime high of 30712.35 points. The Nifty 50 ended down 1.55 points at 9427.90 points, while the Nifty FMCG hit a lifetime high of 24922.50 points and ended up over 2% at 24352.90 points, following the announcement of the rates under the tax regime. The new tax rates under the goods and services tax for most of the fast moving consumer goods are near their existing indirect tax rates. However, for toothpaste, hair oil and soaps, the tax will come down from the current 23% to 18%. With sector leaders like Hindustan Unilever and ITC moving to lifetime high levels, the brokerage now expects Britannia Industries to move higher. Stocks of cigarette major ITC closed up 3% at 286.20 rupees, while Hindustan Unilever ended up 1.8% at 1,008 rupees, and Britannia Industries closed up 0.8% at 3,582.70 rupees. Next week, investors are likely to focus on shares in the automobile, telecom, information technology, metals, textiles, and hotels segments, following the announcement of the goods and services tax rates. Stocks of healthcare and education may attract some buying as they are exempt from the tax regime. Next week, Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, Cipla, GAIL India, ITC, Lupin, Sun Pharmaceutical, Tata Motors, Bosch, Indian Oil Corp and Tech Mahindra are likely to be in focus as they are the Nifty 50 companies that will announce their Jan-Mar earnings.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017


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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017
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Stocks of most automobile companies are seen trading higher next week. Focus will be on stocks of Maruti Suzuki India Ltd and Tata Motors Ltd. The much waited announcement on Goods and Services Tax rates on automobiles is unlikely to have any impact on shares of automakers, as the final tax was along expected line. Most vehicles were kept at 28% rate under GST, with varying cess, taking the total indirect tax on vehicles to levels similar to the current structure. We don't see any material difference on companies as these prices (GST rate) will be passed on to the consumers and demand will not be hit severely by 2-3% price increase. On Tuesday, Maruti Suzuki had launched new Dzire compact sedan, which is likely to push its sales up. So far, Vitara Brezza compact sports utility vehicle and Baleno hatchback have been the primary driver of the company's Growth. The company's aggressive network expansion strategy has boosted its prospects. The carmaker has planned a capital expenditure of 45 bln rupees for 2017-18 (Apr-Mar), and a large chunk of which would go towards buying new properties to open sales and service outlets. Stocks of Tata Motors are seen extending gains from this week. The company had last week. India Meteorological Department's revised projection of a near normal monsoon rains is also seen helping the company, which has a substantial demand in rural regions. A good monsoon rain is likely to increase rural demand as it would increase disposable income. This is likely to benefit most automobile companies, especially Hero MotoCorp Ltd. A good season for agriculture is also likely to benefit tractor-makers and commercial vehicle manufacturers like Escorts Ltd and Tata Motors Ltd. The leader in the entry-level motorcycle segment, Hero MotoCorp Ltd, is likely to see a sharp rise in demand with the onset of good monsoon as it derives a large share of the demand from rural markets. The company also plans to launch six new models in 2017-18 (Apr-Mar). The automaker plans to invest 25 bln rupees in business development and capacity expansion over a period of two years. The two-wheeler manufacturer also plans to expand its scooter segment to Consolidate its position in the two-wheeler market across rural and urban markets. Bajaj Auto Ltd, which reported Jan-Mar earnings on Thursday, said its margins in the coming quarters are expected to contract due to a rise in prices of raw materials. However, the company remained optimistic about a steady recovery in exports this year.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017


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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017
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Bank stocks are expected to trade mixed in the coming week, with large-sized state-owned banks such as State Bank of India and Bank of Baroda likely to register gains. Most public sector bank stocks may see some consolidation at the current levels, as the earnings season for Jan-Mar comes to an end, while private sector lenders are expected to witness a correction. Private lenders ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank are expected to continue trading with an upward bias next week after reporting profits, despite an increase in their provisions for Jan-Mar. SBI is expected to continue its gaining streak next week after having reported a net profit of 28.1 bln rupees for Jan-Mar yesterday. During the day, stocks of SBI hit an over two-year high of 315.30 rupees on the National Stock Exchange after the lender reported strong growth in net interest income in Jan-Mar and its bad loans fell during the quarter. Earlier yesterday, YES Bank as its top pick in the mid-sized private banking space because of the bank's healthy capitalization, strong capital allocation, and market-leading growth rates. However, a few PSU banks that are grappling with high capital requirements amidst piling bad loans, are expected to trade weak. Banks such as Indian Overseas Bank, UCO Bank, IDBI Bank may trade with a downward bias subject to balance sheets, NPA numbers. Corporation Bank is set to declare its Jan-Mar results on Saturday while Bank of India will detail its numbers on Monday. Bank of India's earnings in Jan-Mar are likely to improve on a yearly basis, due to loan recoveries and healthy rise in non-interest income.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017


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Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017
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Stocks of public sector oil refiners and retailers—Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd--are seen trading on a mixed note in a run-up to their Jan-Mar earnings over the next fortnight. In terms of fundamentals, however, these companies are on solid ground and have been benefiting from the rise in domestic demand for fuels and robust refining and marketing margins, which lends them a positive outlook for the medium to long term. In the absence of any major sectoral triggers, stocks of oil companies may be affected by their Jan-Mar earnings, crude oil prices, news flow, and sentiment in the broad market. Indian Oil will detail its Jan-Mar earnings on Thursday, while Hindustan Petroleum and Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd will do so on Friday. Bharat Petroleum and Oil India Ltd will detail their earnings on May 29. Crude oil futures globally are seen rising next week as optimism over the likely extension of the output cut deal between major producers beyond June continues to strengthen. Earlier in the day, prices of global crude oil breached the $50-a-barrel level to hit a three-week high of $50.07 a bbl. Investors now await the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers regarding the extension of the cuts. The producers are scheduled to meet on Thursday in Vienna. Kuwait also joined major producers Saudi Arabia and Russia in supporting an extension of production cuts through the remainder of the year and into 2018. It is widely expected an extension will occur, and energy officials from Saudi Arabia and Russia this week signaled they back a nine-month extension. OPEC and other producers had agreed to cut output by 1.8 mln barrels per day for the six-month period ending June to boost prices. Consequently, stocks of upstream players such as ONGC and Oil India may witness some strength on account of the likely appreciation in oil prices. Any major shift in the dollar-rupee exchange rate can also impact shares of oil companies. If the dollar weakens against the rupee, it could add to the woes of upstream companies. This is because upstream companies price oil and gas in dollars and a weak greenback leads to a decline in actual price realisation in rupee terms. On other hand, refining companies stand to gain from a weaker dollar, as it would reduce their outgo towards purchase of crude oil and gas.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017

Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017


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 Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017
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Movement in shares of telecommunication companies is likely to remain stock specific next week, with those of Reliance Communications Ltd seen falling. Expect continue to be negative on the sector and expect aggression by Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd to hit operators in the sector. The Reliance Industries Ltd subsidiary launched operations in September offering free data and voice services till March, and announced competitive tariff April onwards. This has forced incumbent operators such as Bharti Airtel Ltd and Idea Cellular Ltd to announce matching tariff plans to compete, leading to pressure on margins and revenue. Hit by Reliance Jio's free services, Bharti Airtel Ltd's consolidated net profit for the March quarter fell 25.9% on quarter to 3.7 bln rupees. The company's average revenue per user in India fell 8.4% on quarter to 158 rupees in Jan-Mar. Though Idea Cellular Ltd's consolidated net loss narrowed to 3.28 bln rupees in Jan-Mar from 3.84 bln rupees the previous quarter, its consolidated revenue, including other operating income, fell 6.2% on quarter to 81.26 bln rupees. In a recent report, ratings agency ICRA said the ongoing pricing pressure, stress on operating metrics in the sector, and rising debt levels were seen weighing on the financial performance of telecom operators. The Reserve Bank of India has voiced similar concerns and has asked banks to give immediate attention to the telecom sector, and review banks' exposure by Jun 30. With an aim to recommend resolution of stressed assets at the earliest, the government too has formed an inter-ministerial group to study the financial health of the telecom sector. Rising competition in the sector after the entry of Reliance Jio has also led to consolidation. Bharti Airtel has announced two separate acquisitions of Tikona Digital Networks Pvt Ltd and the Indian arm of Norway's Telenor ASA.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

I.T Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017

I.T Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017


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I.T Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017
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Stocks of information technology companies are seen trading sideways next week as market participants are expected to remain cautious with their investments. Additionally, trade in the broader market is likely to remain in a narrow range in the upcoming week. The Nifty IT index is seen in the range of 10000-10950 points in the near term. Tech Mahindra is scheduled to report its earnings for the March quarter on May 26. It is the last among the Nifty IT index constituents to post its earnings. Stocks in the IT sector had declined over the past few weeks due to rising protectionist views across the globe. While the stocks have bottomed out, large gains are not expected and movement is likely to be stock-specific the following week. Stocks of Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services are seen rising 1% during the week, that these stocks will remain preferred on low valuations. The Indian currency is seen rising next week which would weigh on sentiment in the sector. The sector comprises large software exporters to the US. The rupee, which had appreciated nearly 5% during Jan-Mar, has been volatile over the last few weeks.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 – 26.05.2017

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 – 26.05.2017


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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 – 26.05.2017
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Stocks of most fast moving consumer goods companies are likely to fall in the coming week as investors may book profit since shares of most companies remain overbought. FMCG companies could also remain under pressure due to new indirect tax regime as these entities are unlikely to hike prices of their products in the near future in order to maintain current sales volumes. Under the anti-profiteering clause in the Goods and Services Tax, companies have to pass on tax benefit to consumers. This could drive customers to branded products from unbranded ones, spurring the growth in volume for FMCG companies. The GST Council has decided to exempt cereals and milk--currently in 0-5% tax slab--from any GST. The council has kept the tax slab for sugar, tea, edible oil and coffee constant at 5%. Hair oil, soap and toothpaste will be taxed at 18%, down from the current 22-26%. Most other products such as aerated water, chocolates, chewing gum and malted food drinks will be taxed at 28%, higher than the current rate of effective taxation. Emami Ltd, which mostly sells personal care products, could gain in the near term due to product launches and the company's higher spends on advertising and promotion

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017


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Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017


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Stocks of capital goods companies are expected to rise next week, as the proposed Goods and Services Tax rates for the sector is seen to be positive. At the outset, the GST rate on capital goods appears to be a positive Surprise but more details regarding it are awaited before coming to any Conclusion. The GST council has placed all capital and industrial goods under the 18% tax slab. Stock-specific action is likely next week. Sector bellwether Larsen & Toubro and Bharat Heavy Electricals are likely to see upsides in the forthcoming week as the government, earlier in the week, approved plans to build 10 new nuclear reactors. These reactors will help India generate 7,000 MW of electricity from nuclear power plants by 2021-22 (Apr-Mar). Market participants would also keep an eye on Crompton Greaves, now rechristened as CG Power & Industrial Solutions, as it details its Jan-Mar earnings on Friday.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017


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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 22 to 26.05.2017


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Next week, stocks of metal and mining companies will take cues from political developments in the US and the implications of tax rates under the goods and services tax. Concern about US President Donald Trump being impeached has weighed on stocks of metal companies globally as well as domestically, most of which were subdued this week. Political uncertainty in the US is likely to make it difficult for Trump to pass his $1-trln infrastructure spending plan through the US Congress this year, which is likely to hit demand. Stocks of most metal companies had rallied after Trump took office due to hopes of higher infrastructure spending in the US. Another major development for shares of metal companies is the rates under the goods and services tax. Iron and steel, most copper products, and aluminium alloys will be taxed at 18% under the new indirect tax regime. However, the impact of these rates is not clear yet. This week, three major companies in the segment--Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and Vedanta--reported robust earnings. The week ahead is expected to be light in terms of earnings, as Hindalco Industries will detail its earnings only in the last week of May. Jindal Steel and Power will report its earnings on Tuesday.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.