Thursday, August 11, 2016

Economic indicators to be released on 12-Aug-16

Economic indicators to be released on 12-Aug-16
Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous
Impact Industrial Production y/y China 7:30am - 6.2% 6.2%
High Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y China 7:30am - 8.9% 9.0%
Medium German Prelim GDP q/q Euro 11:30am - 0.3% 0.7%
High Flash GDP q/q Euro 2:30pm - 0.3% 0.3%
Medium Core Retail Sales m/m US 6:00pm - 0.2% 0.7%
High PPI m/m US 6:00pm - 0.1% 0.5%
High Retail Sales m/m US 6:00pm - 0.4% 0.6%
High Core PPI m/m US 6:00pm - 0.2% 0.4%
Medium Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment US 7:30pm - 91.5 90.0 High
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JAPANESE YEN (JPY/USD) : 12.08.2016

JAPANESE YEN (JPY/USD) : 12.08.2016

Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.45 percent yesterday owing to robust release of unemployment and import prices data form America which has booted the demand for US Dollar in turn keeping the Yen pressurized. Moreover, markets discounted the robust release of current account data from the nation. Current account surplus jumped to JPY 1.65 trillion, up from JPY 1.45 trillion a month earlier. This figure beat the forecast of JPY 1.60  trillion and marked a 3-month high.

OUTLOOK
Japanese yen is expected to trade negative as recent weakness in the DX will prompt traders to pace fresh bets.


BoJ Outlook

 Inflation outlook for fiscal 2017 and 2018 are roughly unchanged from initial estimates.
 Central bank to ease more to hit 2 percent inflation target if necessary.
 BoJ to up dollar lending facility to y24 bln from y12 bln
 BoJ to support firms, banks in securing dollar funds
 Kuroda orders staff to examine negative rate impact
 Strong uncertainty on timing for hitting 2 pct target mainly due to overseas risks. 
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STERLING POUND (GBPUSD) - Strategy : 12.08.2016

STERLING POUND (GBPUSD) - Strategy : 12.08.2016

The sterling pound fell by 0.42 percent. Investors are speculating that recent disappointing stimulus package introduced by BoE could prompt a greater fiscal policy response to Brexit-based
uncertainty. This has led to increased volatility in the Sterling Pound.

Lack of important economic data releases from the nation prompted the traders to focus on the outcome of BoE monetary policy review where the policymakers announced a surprise
package which comprised of a rate cut of 25 basis points to 0.25 percent. Many other measures were also introduced to stimulate the Britain economy in the wake of the Brexit vote. BoE inflation
report shows biggest downgrade to growth outlook.

OUTLOOK
Sterling Pound is expected to trade sideways owing to DX strength. Moreover, markets are speculating a greater fiscal policy response by BoE to Brexit-based uncertainty.

* Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.2 in July’16 from previous months 49.1.
* CPI came on a good note at 0.5 percent in June’16 from 0.3 percent in May’16
* Retails sales declined by 0.9 percent in June ’16 from previous months 0.9 percent.

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EURO (EURUSD) : 11.59Pm

EURO (EURUSD) : 11.59Pm

Euro currency traded lower by 0.3 percent yesterday owing to strength seen in the American currency. Moreover, lack of important economic data releases from the zone kept the trading
volumes light.

Excess liquidity in the Euro-zone marginally fell to E977.626bln on  Friday from E982.096bln the night before according to latest ECB figures. Moreover, the Bundesbank boss and ECB governing
council's Weidmann in an interview signaled at the possibility of adjusting the bond-buying programme. They also acknowledged the fact that they might be a pressure of keeping interest rates
low as highly indebted countries could not withstand a rate rise.

OUTLOOK
Euro is expected to trade lower as markets remain a bit cautious ahead of the important German GDP data release from the zone that will come later in the day.

* Spanish Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.0 in July'16 from previous months 52.2.
* CPI Flash Estimate for the month of July’16 surged by 0.2 percent from previous months 0.1 percent.
* German Retail Sales plunged by 0.1 percent in July’16 from a gain of 0.7 percent in previous month.
* Prelim Flash GDP for q/e June’16 plunged by 0.3 percent
from previous quarters 0.6 percent.
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US DOLLAR INDEX (USD) - 12.08.2016

US DOLLAR INDEX (USD) - 12.08.2016

The American currency surged by 0.2 percent yesterday owing to the robust release of economic data sets from the nation. Number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell in the last week. Moreover, year on year import prices are still clawing back from the negative. Markets are still discounting the robust release of ADP and NFP employment data from the nation that came far better than the expected levels in July’16. Amid uncertain global conditions, there has been a decent demand for workers which clearly indicates that the labour markets have finally found some stability. US Dollar Index made an intraday high of 95.91 and closed at 95.84 levels on Thursday.

 INDIAN RUPEE (USDINR) The Indian rupee traded on a flat yesterday as robust release of unemployment claims data from the US boosted the demand for American currency n turn keeping the Indian rupee pressurized. Domestic markets i.e. Sensex and Nifty ended on a positive note tracking gains in Asian markets equities.

 Markets are still discounting RBI’s Monetary Policy review where the policymakers kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 percent. The central bank has also emphasized adequate provision of liquidity and will continue with liquidity operations, FX intervention to enable fcnr(b) redemption without market disruption. RBI says GST tax implementation will improve business sentiment, retains growth forecast at 7.6 pct for 2016-17.

For the month of August 2016, FII inflows in equities totaled at Rs. 4772.39 crores ($714.15 million) as on 11th August, 2016. Year to date basis, net capital outflows stood at Rs. 36550.80 crores ($5494.66 million) as on 11 th August, 2016.


OUTLOOK Rupee is likely to appreciate as higher trading in the Asian market equities will govern the trend of the Indian markets and its currency. 
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MARKET OVERVIEW : 12.08.2016

MARKET OVERVIEW : 12.08.2016


Asian markets are trading positive tracking gains in the US markets after crude prices climbed up. Even the less than expected economic data releases from China could not hinder the
roust trading in the global markets.

US DOLLAR INDEX (USD)
The American currency surged by 0.2 percent yesterday owing to the robust release of economic data sets from the nation. Number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell in the last week.

Moreover, year on year import prices are still clawing back from the negative. Markets are still discounting the robust release of ADP and NFP employment data from the nation that came far better than the expected levels in July’16. Amid uncertain global conditions, there has been a decent demand for workers which clearly indicates that the labour markets have finally found some stability.
US Dollar Index made an intraday high of 95.91 and closed at 95.84 levels on Thursday.

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Rupee opens marginally higher at 66.80 per dollar 9.03Am

Rupee opens marginally higher at 66.80 per dollar  9.03Am

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I expect the USD-INR to trade within the 66.75-67/dollar range,

The Indian rupee opened marginally higher by 4 paise at 66.80 per dollar on Friday versus 66.84 Thursday.
 "The pull and push in USD-INR is evenly matched currently. Support comes in around 66.80/dollar and break below this looks unsustainable.

Hence I expect the pair to trade within the 66.75-67/dollar range."

US dollar index trades around 95.90 levels, rising from a near one-week low.

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Currency Coin Tips , 2nd Session: 12.Aug.2016


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 ( Paper Trading Practice for Currency Segment USDINR/EURINR/GBPINR/JPYINR ) 

 10.37 Am : Buy USDINR (AUG) SA 67.01 SL 66.90 Target 67.11 / 67.19 / 67.27
10.37 Am : Sell USDINR (AUG) SB 66.85 SL 66.96 Target 66.75 / 66.67 / 66.59
 USDINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : DOWN SL : 67.05 

 10.37 Am : Buy EURINR (AUG) SA 74.68 SL 74.57 Target 74.78 / 74.86 / 74.94
10.37 Am : Sell EURINR (AUG) SB 74.52 SL 74.63 Target 74.42 / 74.34 / 74.26
 EURINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : DOWN SL : 74.80 

 10.37 Am : Buy GBPINR (AUG) SA 86.98 SL 86.87 Target 87.08 / 87.16 / 87.24
10.37 Am : Sell GBPINR (AUG) SB 86.82 SL 86.93 Target 86.72 / 86.64 / 86.56
 GBPINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : DOWN SL : 87.20 

 10.37 Am : Buy JPYINR (AUG) SA 65.68 SL 65.57 Target 65.78 / 65.86 / 65.94
10.37 Am : Sell JPYINR (AUG) SB 65.52 SL 65.63 Target 65.42 / 65.34 / 65.26
 JPYINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : DOWN SL : 65.95 
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Free Gbpinr Intraday Calls, 1st Session: 12.Aug.2016


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 ( Paper Trading Practice for Currency Segment USDINR/EURINR/GBPINR/JPYINR ) 

 9.10 Am : Buy USDINR (AUG) SA 67.05 SL 66.94 Target 67.15 / 67.23 / 67.31
9.10 Am : Sell USDINR (AUG) SB 66.89 SL 67.00 Target 66.79 / 66.71 / 66.63
 USDINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : DOWN SL : 67.05 

 9.10 Am : Buy EURINR (AUG) SA 74.72 SL 74.61 Target 74.82 / 74.90 / 74.98
9.10 Am : Sell EURINR (AUG) SB 74.56 SL 74.67 Target 74.46 / 74.38 / 74.30
 EURINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : DOWN SL : 74.80 

 9.10 Am : Buy GBPINR (AUG) SA 87.04 SL 86.93 Target 87.14 / 87.22 / 87.30
9.10 Am : Sell GBPINR (AUG) SB 86.88 SL 86.99 Target 86.78 / 86.70 / 86.62
 GBPINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : DOWN SL : 87.20 

 9.10 Am : Buy JPYINR (AUG) SA 65.74 SL 65.63 Target 65.84 / 65.92 / 66.00
9.10 Am : Sell JPYINR (AUG) SB 65.58 SL 65.69 Target 65.48 / 65.40 / 65.32
 JPYINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : DOWN SL : 65.95 
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Expect USD-INR to trade within 66.75-67/USD range: 12.08.2016

Expect USD-INR to trade within 66.75-67/USD range: 12.08.2016

K.Karthik Raja  Expect the yield to remain between 7.05-7.10 percent, says K.Karthik Raja, Rupeedesk Consultancy .

 "The pull and push in USD-INR is evenly matched currently. Support comes in around 66.80/USD and break below this looks unsustainable. Hence I expect the pair to trade within the 66.75-67/USD range." "The 10-year benchmark yield is slowly aligning down. I expect the yield to remain between 7.05-7.10 percent," he further added.

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Currency Tips India, 6th Session: 11.Aug.2016


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 ( Paper Trading Practice for Currency Segment USDINR/EURINR/GBPINR/JPYINR ) 

 4.14 Pm : Buy USDINR (AUG) SA 67.10 SL 66.99 Target 67.20 / 67.28 / 67.36
4.14 Pm : Sell USDINR (AUG) SB 66.94 SL 67.05 Target 66.84 / 66.76 / 66.68
 USDINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : UP SL : 66.95 

 4.14 Pm : Buy EURINR (AUG) SA 74.76 SL 74.65 Target 74.86 / 74.94 / 75.02
4.14 Pm : Sell EURINR (AUG) SB 74.60 SL 74.71 Target 74.50 / 74.42 / 74.34
 EURINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : UP SL : 74.65 

 4.14 Pm : Buy GBPINR (AUG) SA 87.00 SL 86.89 Target 87.10 / 87.18 / 87.26
4.14 Pm : Sell GBPINR (AUG) SB 86.84 SL 86.95 Target 86.74 / 86.66 / 86.58
 GBPINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : DOWN SL : 87.30 

 4.14 Pm : Buy JPYINR (AUG) SA 66.12 SL 66.01 Target 66.22 / 66.30 / 66.38
4.14 Pm : Sell JPYINR (AUG) SB 65.96 SL 66.07 Target 65.86 / 65.78 / 65.70
 JPYINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : UP SL : 65.95 

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Rupeedesk Forex Tips, 5th Session: 11.Aug.2016

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 ( Paper Trading Practice for Currency Segment USDINR/EURINR/GBPINR/JPYINR ) 

 3.08 Pm : Buy USDINR (AUG) SA 67.06 SL 66.95 Target 67.16 / 67.24 / 67.32
3.08 Pm : Sell USDINR (AUG) SB 66.90 SL 67.01 Target 66.80 / 66.72 / 66.64
 USDINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : UP SL : 66.95 

 3.08 Pm : Buy EURINR (AUG) SA 74.77 SL 74.66 Target 74.87 / 74.95 / 75.03
3.08 Pm : Sell EURINR (AUG) SB 74.61 SL 74.72 Target 74.51 / 74.43 / 74.35
 EURINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : UP SL : 74.65 

 3.08 Pm : Buy GBPINR (AUG) SA 86.98 SL 86.87 Target 87.08 / 87.16 / 87.24
3.08 Pm : Sell GBPINR (AUG) SB 86.82 SL 86.93 Target 86.72 / 86.64 / 86.56
 GBPINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : DOWN SL : 87.30 

 3.08 Pm : Buy JPYINR (AUG) SA 66.17 SL 66.06 Target 66.27 / 66.35 / 66.43
3.08 Pm : Sell JPYINR (AUG) SB 66.01 SL 66.12 Target 65.91 / 65.83 / 65.75
 JPYINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : UP SL : 65.95 
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Gbpinr Rupee Tips, 4th Session: 11.Aug.2016

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 ( Paper Trading Practice for Currency Segment USDINR/EURINR/GBPINR/JPYINR ) 

 2.16 Pm : Buy USDINR (AUG) SA 67.11 SL 67.00 Target 67.21 / 67.29 / 67.37
2.16 Pm : Sell USDINR (AUG) SB 66.95 SL 67.06 Target 66.85 / 66.77 / 66.69
 USDINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : UP SL : 66.95 

 2.16 Pm : Buy EURINR (AUG) SA 74.80 SL 74.69 Target 74.90 / 74.98 / 75.06
2.16 Pm : Sell EURINR (AUG) SB 74.64 SL 74.75 Target 74.54 / 74.46 / 74.38
 EURINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : UP SL : 74.65 

 2.16 Pm : Buy GBPINR (AUG) SA 86.96 SL 86.85 Target 87.06 / 87.14 / 87.22
2.16 Pm : Sell GBPINR (AUG) SB 86.80 SL 86.91 Target 86.70 / 86.62 / 86.54
 GBPINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : DOWN SL : 87.30 

 2.16 Pm : Buy JPYINR (AUG) SA 66.24 SL 66.13 Target 66.34 / 66.42 / 66.50
2.16 Pm : Sell JPYINR (AUG) SB 66.08 SL 66.19 Target 65.98 / 65.90 / 65.82
 JPYINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : UP SL : 65.95 

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Right Rupee Tips, 3rd Session: 11.Aug.2016


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 ( Paper Trading Practice for Currency Segment USDINR/EURINR/GBPINR/JPYINR ) 

 1.05 Pm : Buy USDINR (AUG) SA 67.09 SL 66.98 Target 67.19 / 67.27 / 67.35
1.05 Pm : Sell USDINR (AUG) SB 66.93 SL 67.04 Target 66.83 / 66.75 / 66.67
 USDINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : UP SL : 66.95 

 1.05 Pm : Buy EURINR (AUG) SA 74.77 SL 74.66 Target 74.87 / 74.95 / 75.03
1.05 Pm : Sell EURINR (AUG) SB 74.61 SL 74.72 Target 74.51 / 74.43 / 74.35
 EURINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : UP SL : 74.65 

 1.05 Pm : Buy GBPINR (AUG) SA 87.13 SL 87.02 Target 87.23 / 87.31 / 87.39
1.05 Pm : Sell GBPINR (AUG) SB 86.97 SL 87.08 Target 86.87 / 86.79 / 86.71
 GBPINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : DOWN SL : 87.40 

 1.05 Pm : Buy JPYINR (AUG) SA 66.23 SL 66.12 Target 66.33 / 66.41 / 66.49
1.05 Pm : Sell JPYINR (AUG) SB 66.07 SL 66.18 Target 65.97 / 65.89 / 65.81
 JPYINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : UP SL : 65.95 

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Online Forex Calls, 2nd Session: 11.Aug.2016


 REGISTER FOR FREE CURRENCY TIPS - http://rupeedesk.in/rupeedeskfree-calls 
 ( Paper Trading Practice for Currency Segment USDINR/EURINR/GBPINR/JPYINR ) 

 11.55 Am : Buy USDINR (AUG) SA 67.09 SL 66.98 Target 67.19 / 67.27 / 67.35
11.55 Am : Sell USDINR (AUG) SB 66.93 SL 67.04 Target 66.83 / 66.75 / 66.67
 USDINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : UP SL : 66.95 

 11.55 Am : Buy EURINR (AUG) SA 74.90 SL 74.79 Target 75.00 / 75.08 / 75.16
11.55 Am : Sell EURINR (AUG) SB 74.74 SL 74.85 Target 74.64 / 74.56 / 74.48
 EURINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : UP SL : 74.65 

 11.55 Am : Buy GBPINR (AUG) SA 87.29 SL 87.18 Target 87.39 / 87.47 / 87.55
11.55 Am : Sell GBPINR (AUG) SB 87.13 SL 87.24 Target 87.03 / 86.95 / 86.87
 GBPINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : DOWN SL : 87.40 

 11.55 Am : Buy JPYINR (AUG) SA 66.15 SL 66.04 Target 66.25 / 66.33 / 66.41
11.55 Am : Sell JPYINR (AUG) SB 65.99 SL 66.10 Target 65.89 / 65.81 / 65.73
 JPYINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : UP SL : 65.95 
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Forex Technical Outlook : 11.08.2016

Forex Technical Outlook : 11.08.2016

USDINR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
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Above is the Daily Chart of USDINR, the pair after opening at 67.05 and made a low of 67.04 and trading side wise a day before the pair saw some buying from the lower levels, but the pair maintained the levels of 66.90 and had formed a bullish candle few days now we are near the support s of that ,but the pair is not able to sustain the higher levels and violated the crucial supports but trading range of 66.90-67.20 if violate the n head lower

Fundamental Overview
US dollar index is trading at 95.59, mostly unchanged for lack of any major events that were scheduled yesterday. August is a usually a dull month for markets historically. There is no major economic data to be reported today and expect the lackluster movement to continue for the day.

EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
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EUR/USD. Pair after opening at 1.1087 made a high of 1.105, and was trading with a neutral bias, during the day ,but the pair has violated the recent range and any rise close to its 50DMA at 1.1133 is likely to find resistance and strong resistance near 200DMA at 1.1152 as few days it broke out of the range so intraday any rise is a shorting opportunity

Fundamental Overview

Euro is trading at 1.1176, remaining in a tight range between 1.11 and 1.12. Volatility in today’s trade is likely to remain low for lack of any major economic data. Expect this trend to continue into the weekend with equity market performance being the major market mover for the shared currency

GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
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GBP/USD. Pair after opening at 1.3040 made a low of 1.2954 , and saw some selling pressure from higher levels the pair is respecting the levels of 1.3150 as a resistance and 20DMA at 13420 and strong supply was coming at 1.3200 now any rise is a shorting opportunity in the pair

Fundamental Overview

Pound is trading at 1.3011, retreating from the highs near 1.31 that were seen yesterday. There was no major data that was reported yesterday but some short covering in the Asian session led to the intraday peak. Pound is likely to oscillate between 1.30-1.31and it is better to play this range for today.

USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
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USD/JPY. Pair after opening at 102.39and made a high of 102.52 and was seen strong buying pressure, the pair had bottom out and made a low of 98.98 and from there the pair had reversed and now trading near its 08Dma 102.35 if the pair able to close decisively above the said levels can head higher and now its taking a resistance on downward sloping trend line, and has violated the supports of 102 so any intraday sell on rise

Fundamental Overview

Yen is trading at 101.30, with very limited change from yesterday’s session. Weakness in the equity markets in the European and US session led to some buying of safe haven Yen. Japanese markets are closed today and the range bound trade is likely to continue for the day. 
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Free Currency Tips ( Call - 9094047040)


Free Currency Tips ( Call - 9094047040)

Free Currency Tips ( Call - 9094047040)
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Debt market

• Government bonds bonds rose for a second day, hitting record highs, as the central bank’s move to ensure sufficient surplus cash at banks boosted demand for debt

• The benchmark 7.59% bond maturing in 2026 ended at | 103.31, highest since its issuance vs. the previous close of | 102.81

• The benchmark 7.59% 2026 bond yield ended at 7.10%, down 3 bps from previous close

Forex (US$/INR)

• The rupee rose to a two-month against the dollar, as weak US productivity data reduced hopes of an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve

• The dollar index against six major currencies ended at 95.65, down 0.55% from the previous close of 96.18 Equity

• Equity benchmarks ended over 1% lower on Wednesday to register the highest single day loss in percentage terms since June 24, the day of Brexit verdict amid intensified profit bookings

• The Sensex fell 310 points or 1.10% to 27774 while the Nifty lost 102 points or 1.24% to end at 8575 levels

• The broader markets also fell in line with the benchmarks as the BSE midcap and small cap indices lost ~1% each. The overall market breadth was negative with an A/D ratio of 1:2.26 on the BSE

Commodities Market

• Crude oil prices fell on Wednesday. They were unable to sustain gains as  a rise in US oil inventories fuelled concerns on supply glut
• Gold prices ticked on the higher side as disappointing

 US economic data
softened US dollar raising doubts whether the US Fed would raise rates

 US$/INR derivatives strategy: Sell August Contract

• In the currency futures market, the most traded dollar-rupee August contract on the NSE ended at 66.90. The August contract open interest rose 10.74% from the previous day

• September contract open interest was up 20.74% from the previous day

• We expect the US dollar to meet supply pressure on rallies. Utilise upsides in dollar to go short 
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