Saturday, April 8, 2017

Indian Market Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017

Indian Market Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017


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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017
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Domestic stocks are seen volatile next week as the earnings season is set to kick in with results of information technology behemoth Infosys due Thursday. Release of key economic data and persisting geopolitical concerns following the US' missile strike on Syria are likely to add to the uncertainty. Domestic stock markets will be shut next Friday on account of Good Friday. The data on Consumer Price Index-based inflation for March will be released on Wednesday, as will the February data for index of industrial production. Bias for domestic equities, however, remains positive as foreign as well as domestic investors continue to pour money into Indian shares, and on expectations of a full-blown earnings recovery in the new fiscal year. Yesterday, the 51-stock index ended at 9198.30, down 63.65 points or 0.7% from the previous close, while the Sensex ended at 29706.61, down 220.73 points or 0.7%. Traders will closely monitor the movement of the Indian rupee over the next week after it appreciated nearly 1% against the dollar this week. Pharmaceutical, textile, software, and auto-ancillary companies may fall if the Indian unit strengthens more, as their revenue from exports will be hit. Movement of global stock markets will also be eyed as they wait what comes out of the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Despite global equities being subdued today after the US launched cruise missiles on an air base in Syria, some market participants do not see the development as a major threat. It is unlikely that the US strike into Syria will materialise into something serious, as they will not want to directly confront Russia. The focus will largely shift to earnings; information technology companies are likely to post disappointing earnings, as are banks and pharmaceutical companies.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook – 10 to 14.04.2017

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook – 10 to 14.04.2017


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Capital Goods Stocks Outlook – 10 to 14.04.2017
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Stocks of capital goods companies are likely to extend gains next week, riding on the buoyant sentiment following robust outlook on some sector majors. Larsen & Toubro and Bharat Heavy Electricals should lead the pack in the short term. Stocks of L&T, which has risen 11% in the past two weeks on a series of high-value orders. The engineering behemoth has won an order from Power Grid Corp of India Ltd worth nearly 2 bln rupees for a tower package. State-owned BHEL hit a one-year high at 174.65 rupees earlier this week, as the company said it exceeded the capacity addition target in the utility segment during the 12th Five-year Plan period that ended March. In the five-year period, the company added 45,274 MW of capacity in the utility segment, higher than the target of 41,661 MW. BHEL is on course towards the 200-rupee mark in the near-tomedium term if the positive momentum around it sustains. Analysts are also bullish on Siemens' stock, as it continues to gain from consortium Sumitomo Electric Industries' $520-mln order win from Power Grid. Market participants would also keep a watch on the Index of Industrial Production data for February, to be released post market hours on Wednesday by the Central Statistics Office.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017


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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017


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Stocks of metal and mining companies are likely to react to stock-specific triggers in the holiday-truncated week ahead, even as it follows the broader market's trend due to lack of triggers. On Friday, the market will be shut for Good Friday. Shares of most metal companies, especially steel, gained this week on the back of robust production data and reports of price hike of flat rolled products. Apart from this, comments by Steel Minister Birender Singh, that a proposal has been floated to use locallyproduced steel in government projects, also aided gains in shares of steel companies. The minister also said the National Steel Policy is likely to be finalised soon, and that the ministry is in talks with other ministries to raise the consumption of steel, which will keep these companies in focus in the near term. Technical analysts believe that the larger trend for steel companies' stocks is positive. Tata Steel's stock is likely to see strong upward momentum after 509-rupee level, while Jindal Steel & Power's shares are expected to rise up to 142-rupee level in the coming week. However, fundamental analysts are not too upbeat on the sector, as they believe that valuations are stretched and that the price hikes taken by these companies may not sustain given the low demand environment. The uptrend in coking coal and iron ore costs, which is raw material for these companies, is also a concern as the market may not be ready for another round of price hikes, which is likely to hit margins of these producers, and also mar their Jan-Mar earnings. Average steel price hike of 1,500-2,500 rupees taken during the quarter will not be enough to offset this higher cost (coking coal) profile despite higher volumes, resulting in sequential decline in EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) for most steel plays. Apart from steel, stocks of aluminium producers will also be in focus on expectation of protective measures for local producers. Reports suggest that the government may either consider a minimum import price or anti-dumping duty for aluminium.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017


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Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017
Stocks of cement companies are seen rising next week because of the price hikes undertaken this week. Cogencis had reported on Thursday that cement makers have increased prices by 15-60 rupees per 50-kg bags in different parts across the country. While the increase in prices in southern states was because of the on going truck strike that has hit supply, dealers in Delhi-National Capital Region attributed the hike to steady recovery in demand. Demand for cement was hit by the government's decision to demonetize old 500- and 1,000-rupee currency notes from Nov 9, in order to curb black money. Cement companies had reduced prices after demonetisation in order to revive demand and maintain market share. However, demand has started improving since mid-January as remonetisation gathers pace. This has given cement companies room to increase prices. Demand has improved and is expected to increase further. Smart cities, affordable housing, and irrigation projects will gather pace ahead and will boost demand. However, the drought in southern states may affect demand there. Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka are facing water crisis and the situation is likely to worsen in the coming months.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017

IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017


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IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017
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Stocks of information technology companies are seen moving in a narrow range with a negative bias next week, as investors await Jan-Mar results. IT giant Infosys will kick start the earnings season for the sector and announce its results on Thursday. While the market speculates whether Infosys will give any guidance on its revenue growth during 2017-18 (Apr-Mar) after having cut its view thrice in 2016-17 (Apr-Mar), some analysts expect the company to guide its growth in a range of 7-10% in constant currency terms and 6-9% in dollar terms. The technology company had revised its revenue growth guidance for 2016-17 to 7.5-8.5% in dollar terms from 11.8-13.8% guided in April last year. If Infosys reduces its guidance as compared to last year then that heat will be seen on the stock next week. The company's quarterly performance will also have an impact on other IT stocks as it would largely set the trend for the sector. Stocks of Infosys are expected to bounce back from 981.55 rupees at today's close, if the company posts good results for Jan-Mar. Analysts also expect stocks of Tata Consultancy Services, another major Nifty IT constituent, to perform well as it is likely to post positive results notwithstanding the seasonal weakness of fewer working days. TCS is likely to announce its financial statement for Jan-Mar in the third week of April. Apart from the expected weak results from most domestic software services exporters, factors such as looming threat on US visa policy changes and appreciation in the rupee are seen weighing on the sector. A strong rupee against the US dollar is negative for IT companies because they get a large portion of revenue from export of services. Decision to execute Brexit in 2017 would also mount pressure on the IT stocks. Investors continue to prefer Wipro because of its better performance compared with other companies. Stocks of Wipro are likely to trade flat in the week ahead.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017


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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017
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Bank stocks are seen volatile in the upcoming truncated week, as market participants will be squaring off existing positions and building new ones ahead of the Jan-Mar earnings season. However, sector heavyweights are seen trading in a range due to lack of unidirectional triggers and on overall positive sentiment for the sector. Markets will be closed on the last day of the week for Good Friday. The Bank Nifty/Nifty price ratio continues to consolidate above 2.30 levels, and till it is trading above this level, banking index may resume upsides in the days to come. Yesterday, Nifty Bank ended down 0.9% at 21431.15 points. Bank stocks will also take cues from data on consumer price index-based inflation for March, and the February data for industrial production, both scheduled for release on Wednesday. While public sector banks took comfort from the Reserve Bank of India's reiteration, in the bi-monthly Monetary Policy Committee meet, that they will continue to work towards orderly resolution of stressed assets, the central bank's expectation of public banks needing further capital infusion dampened market sentiment a little. In the two-day meet that ended Thursday, RBI kept the policy rate unchanged but narrowed the Liquidity Adjustment Facility corridor by raising the reverse repo rate to 6% and slashing the Marginal Standing Facility by 25 basis points to 6.50%. Overall, expectation from banks' earnings is positive and participants remain bullish on the sector as banks and financial sector companies are among the few seen reporting positive results, despite persistent asset quality concerns. While earnings of retail-heavy private banks are expected to be stable, those of corporate-heavy banks such as ICICI Bank and Axis Bank will be under pressure on elevated credit costs.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017


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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017


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Stocks of fast moving consumer goods companies are seen mixed in the coming week as most players are still facing headwinds despite recovery. While companies like Hindustan Unilever Ltd could trade positively, others like ITC Ltd and Britannia Industries Ltd are seen trading neutral. With rising liquidity, demand and inventory with the trade has improved substantially. Rural markets and a few wholesalers continue to be affected. In the white goods vertical companies such as Whirlpool of India Ltd, Havells India Ltd and V-Guard Industries Ltd are likely to post healthy revenue growth of 16.9%, 14.4% and 11.7% on year, respectively. However, companies focused on industrial capex (capital expenditure) and power generation equipment will continue to suffer owing to lack of pick-up in industrial demand, weak order book and intense competition. Among bellwether FMCG companies, HUL will remain in focus for the next week as the company is likely to cut jobs by as much as 10-15%, as part of its parent Unilever Plc's mandate to reduce costs. Unilever on Thursday announced its intent to save nearly 6 bln Euros in three years starting 2017. The London-headquartered company plans to overhaul its operations and will hive off its spreads business as the category remained challenged in developed markets, it had said in a filing to the London Stock Exchange. The flab shedding will mostly be done in verticals such as spreads which are being made redundant and the foods and refreshment verticals, which are being combined in one. In the long run, most companies would like to focus on rural sector growth rather than the urban markets. The growth in rural markets is also likely to happen only gradually as a fast paced expansion could put cost pressure on FMCG companies. The broad focus will be on areas where these companies are already strong. Premiumisation will be a key theme going forward.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017


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Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017
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Stocks of most pharmaceutical companies are expected to be subdued next week, as investors remain
concerned about the appreciation of the rupee, which is seen hitting the earnings of the export-oriented sector. In the short term, the stronger rupee is causing uncertainty for the sector. Yesterday, the rupee ended at 64.28 a dollar, against the previous close of 64.51. With this, the rupee appreciated for the seventh consecutive week. Companies in the Indian pharmaceutical sector are likely to face more pressure, as the government has formed a panel to review the pricing of essential medicines to make them more affordable. It has also released a draft rule to make it mandatory for drug-makers to highlight generic names more than companies' own brand names on medicine packets. Analysts say that strengthening of the Indian currency against the greenback is the most significant trigger for Indian pharmaceutical companies. Market participants are also keeping a close watch on companies' regulatory issues. Among them, resolution of a warning letter issued to Sun Pharmaceutical Industries' Halol unit in December 2015 is the most keenly awaited. Next week, stocks of India's largest pharmaceutical company are expected to be weak. After a 6% rise this week, shares of Wockhardt had stabilised. Investors may start taking positions ahead of analysts' estimates of companies' earnings for Jan-Mar. Indian pharmaceutical companies have been facing challenges posed by increase in the US Food and Drug Administration's. Observations, delay in approvals, pricing pressure and channel consolidation in the US. On a sequential basis, we expect 4QFY17 (Jan-Mar) to be largely flattish for companies under our coverage universe. We expect Glenmark Pharmaceuticals' 180-day exclusivity on the generic of cholesterol lowering drug Zetia to boost its earnings.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017

Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017


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Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017
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Stocks of most telecom companies are expected to move in a range-bound manner next week, with analysts expecting Tata Communications Ltd's stock to witness consolidation. In what analysts are terming as the likely end of the era of free offers, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India late on Thursday asked Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd to withdraw the complimentary benefits of its Summer Surprise offer. Under the offer, the company had announced that 'Prime' members would get complimentary services for the first three months on a recharge of at least 303 rupees and the paid tariff plan would be applicable only from July. Rolling back of the offer would only result in 2-3% lower subscriber base for Reliance Jio against the projected base if the company had been allowed to extend the benefits till Apr 15. The Reliance Industries Ltd subsidiary had announced Prime membership for a subscriber which entails a one-time subscription charge of 99 rupees a year. Now, the industry will focus on average revenue per user and how much revenue can companies generate. Most operators in the telecom sector are facing stiff pricing pressure after RJio's entry and have offered similarly-priced plans. In a move seen as a response to the tariff war, Bharti Airtel Ltd, Idea Cellular Ltd, Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd, Reliance Communications Ltd, and Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd have announced attractive offers to compete with RJio. In a recent report, ratings agency ICRA said the ongoing pricing pressure triggered by the entry of RJio, stress on operating metrics in the sector, and rising debt levels were seen weighing down on the financial performance of telecom companies. Financial results of Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular for the March quarter are likely to be hit. Rising competition in the sector has also led to consolidation. Bharti Airtel has announced two separate acquisitions of Tikona Digital Networks Pvt Ltd and the Indian arm of Norway's Telenor ASA. Vodafone India Ltd and Idea Cellular have also announced a merger, which is pending regulatory approvals.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017


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Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017
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Stocks of public sector oil refining and retiling companies--Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd--are expected to rise next week, as the underlying sentiment for these stocks continues to be positive. Apart from strength on technical charts, these companies are backed by strong fundamentals, including rising domestic demand for fuels and robust refining and marketing margins, which lends them a generally positive fundamental outlook for the medium to long term. In the absence of any major sectoral triggers, crude oil prices, news flow, and the broad market sentiment could impact the stocks of oil companies. While prices of crude oil witnessed some weakness in recent weeks, they may strengthen next week on hope of extension of production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, as well as other major producers. Supply outages and any prolonging of geopolitical conflicts into next week are also likely to support oil prices. However, as the rupee is likely to retain its strength against the dollar next week, it might restrict any sharp gains in domestic prices of crude oil. A pick-up in refinery activity is also seen supporting crude oil prices, as it has renewed hope that record high crude oil inventories in the US will decline. Stocks of upstream players such as Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd, Cairn India Ltd, and Oil India Ltd, may trade on a positive note due to a rise in oil prices. But the gains may be capped, given they are bound to be hit by a weaker dollar against the rupee. This is because these companies price oil and gas in dollars and a weaker greenback means lower price realisation in rupee terms. On the other hand, refining companies stand to gain from a weaker dollar, as it would reduce their outgo towards purchase of crude oil and gas. As far as technical charts are concerned, the three state-owned oil marketing companies are likely to trade with a positive bias next week, with Indian Oil being the top pick. The general outlook for upstream stocks ONGC and Oil India was positive for next week. The ONGC stock is likely to trade in a range, but with a positive bias.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017


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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017
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Stocks of most automobile companies are expected to rise next week as analysts remain upbeat on the sector on the back of companies reporting strong monthly sales volumes for March. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd continues to be the top pick for most analysts due to a nearly 10% on-year growth in annual sales for 2016-17 (Apr-Mar), and because of high demand for Vitara Brezza sport utility vehicle and the Baleno hatchback. We continue to prefer Maruti Suzuki in the automotive space, given the sustained demand for its products, leading to a consistent rise in market share. In the two-wheeler segment, TVS Motor Co Ltd has emerged as a star performer, with a nearly 11% on-year growth in sales volume for March at 250,979 units. We also like TVS Motor due to the lower impact of demonetisation on its portfolio and its tie-up with BMW which would enable it to gain a foothold in the premium motorcycle space and improve margins. With gradual improvement in cash availability on the ground level, especially in rural areas, outlook for Hero MotoCorp Ltd also looks positive. Hero MotoCorp March volumes surprised positively and grew 1% YoY (year-on-year) and 16% MoM (month-on-month) to nearly 610,000 units, despite the impending Supreme Court verdict on BS-III inventory likely impacting dispatches in the last two weeks. The country's largest two-wheeler manufacturer, with a large rural presence, is also expected to benefit from the 1.87 trln rupees worth of rural spending allocated under the Budget for 2017-18. Higher rural spending is likely to aid growth of commercial vehicles. While commercial vehicle manufacturers did not witness the expected pre-buying of Bharat Stage III-compliant vehicles before the Apr 1 deadline, the segment is likely to see 6-8% growth in the current financial year that started Apr 1, ICRA Research said in a report. Potential implementation of fleet modernisation or scrappage programme and higher demand from consumption-driven sectors, especially for LCVs (light commercial vehicles) and ICVs (intermediate commercial vehicles) will also aid the segment. Next week, the Nifty Auto index is seen rising due to strong upward momentum across the segment. Maruti Suzuki's stocks are expected to remain in focus on the back of strong sales for the last fiscal and strong demand for Vitara Brezza.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.