Chart Pattern
- The chart shows a downtrend followed by a recent recovery.
- Moving Averages: The price is approaching major resistance near the 200-day MA.
- Higher lows and higher highs are forming, suggesting a potential trend reversal.
Trend Analysis
- Short-term trend: Bullish (Price trading above 50 MA and 150 MA).
- Medium-term trend: Neutral (Price near 200 MA).
- Long-term trend: Bearish (390 MA still above price, indicating past weakness).
Dow Theory
- The market was in a downtrend (lower highs and lower lows).
- Now forming a potential reversal pattern with higher highs and higher lows.
- Confirmation required above 42876 to confirm an uptrend.
Upcoming Events to Watch
- Fed rate decisions & inflation data
- Earnings season impact on index components
- US economic data (GDP, employment, etc.)
Volume Analysis
- Rising volume during the recent recovery suggests buying interest.
- Higher volume on green candles → accumulation by institutions.
- Breakout needs higher than average volume for confirmation.
Breakout Strategy (Bullish)
- Entry: Above 42,900 | Stop-loss: Below 42,500.
- Targets: Target 1: 43,200 | Target 2: 43,500 | Target 3: 43,800.
Breakdown Strategy (Bearish)
- Entry: Below 42,500 | Stop-loss: Above 42,900.
- Targets: Target 1: 42,200 | Target 2: 41,900 | Target 3: 41,600.
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