Sunday, August 21, 2016

Free Jpyinr Tips, 2nd Session: 22.Aug.2016


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 ( Paper Trading Practice for Currency Segment USDINR/EURINR/GBPINR/JPYINR ) 

11.55 Am : Buy USDINR (AUG) SA 67.35 SL 67.24 Target 67.45 / 67.53 / 67.61
11.55 Am : Sell USDINR (AUG) SB 67.19 SL 67.30 Target 67.09 / 67.01 / 66.93
 USDINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : UP SL : 67.10 

11.55 Am : Buy EURINR (AUG) SA 75.91 SL 75.80 Target 76.01 / 76.09 / 76.17
11.55 Am : Sell EURINR (AUG) SB 75.75 SL 75.86 Target 75.65 / 75.57 / 75.49
 EURINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : DOWN SL : 76.00 

11.55 Am : Buy GBPINR (AUG) SA 87.85 SL 87.74 Target 87.95 / 88.03 / 88.11
11.55 Am : Sell GBPINR (AUG) SB 87.69 SL 87.80 Target 87.59 / 87.51 / 87.43
 GBPINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : DOWN SL : 88.00 

11.55 Am : Buy JPYINR (AUG) SA 66.73 SL 66.62 Target 66.83 / 66.91 / 66.99
11.55 Am : Sell JPYINR (AUG) SB 66.57 SL 66.68 Target 66.47 / 66.39 / 66.31
 JPYINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : DOWN SL : 66.75 

India bonds, rupee fall after Urjit Patel chosen to head RBI

India bonds, rupee fall after Urjit Patel chosen to head RBI

The benchmark 10-year bond yield rose 4 basis points to 7.14 percent, while the rupee fell to a near one-month low of 67.17/67.18 to the dollar, compared with its close of 67.07.

 Indian bonds and currency fell on Monday as investors took the appointment of Urjit Patel as the next governor of the Reserve Bank of India as a signal of policy continuity at the central bank, making a near term cut in interest rates unlikely.

The benchmark 10-year bond yield rose 4 basis points to 7.14 percent, while the rupee fell to a near one-month low of 67.17/67.18 to the dollar, compared with its close of 67.07. Patel, currently an RBI deputy governor, had been seen as among the more hawkish candidates that had been in the running to take over from Raghuram Rajan, who steps down as governor on Sept. 4.

Traders expect Patel to keep the repo rate on hold at the RBI's next policy review on Oct. 4 after inflation accelerated to 6.07 percent in July, above the RBI's near-term target of 5 percent. The RBI had cut the policy repo rate by 150 bps from January 2015 to April this year but has held them steady since then.

During his time as deputy governor, Patel had headed a panel that recommended landmark changes to monetary policy in India, including a switch to inflation-targeting and the creation of a committee to set interest rates.

The RBI cut interest rates 150 bps during Rajan's tenure and the central bank's pledge to ease cash conditions had also contributed to a rally in bond markets, and investors will be encouraged that one of Rajan's closest aides will succeed him. "All investors, both foreign and domestic should take comfort in the fact that there will be policy continuity," said Kenneth Akintewe, Senior Investment Manager at Aberdeen Asset Management Asia Ltd in Singapore. "Nevertheless, some of the dovish sentiment that had crept into the market will likely be re-priced given that Dr Patel is viewed as being more hawkish, therefore yields could correct slightly higher in the near term."

The 10-year bond yield slumped 36 bps, and hit a seven-year low of 7.07 percent earlier this month as some buyers speculated that a more dovish governor would emerge, and there was also strong buying by foreign investors, though that cooled this month. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government this month formally agreed to adopt Rajan's inflation target of 2 to 6 percent in the medium term. Analysts said they expect Patel, like Rajan, would steer policy towards keeping inflation at the midpoint of 4 percent, instead of the upper end of the range. Still, analysts, say they still see scope for an interest rate cut at the end of this year or early in 2017 should food prices moderate in coming months as monsoon rains have been above average. "The perception is that he is hawkish but he has room to maneuver," said Radhika Rao, economist, DBS, Singapore.


JPYINR Strategy : 22.08.2016

JPYINR Strategy : 22.08.2016

On Friday, JPYINR opened with a slight gap up and extended till 66.97. The pair is consolidating near the immediate support of 66.50. The trend looks to be strong on the daily chart and the pair is likely to head till immediate resistance of 67.40 and higher. Buying is recommended on dips for given targets.

EURINR Strategy : 22.08.2016

EURINR Strategy : 22.08.2016
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EURINR extended its gains on Friday, it opened with a gap up at 75.91 and gradually moved higher and finally settled at 76.0050. The trend has shifted to bullish and next resistance is at 76.30 then 76.70. While on downside immediate support lies at 75.80 then 75.52 and buy is recommend on dips around 75.70 for targets of 76.30 then 76.70.

GBPINR Strategy : 22.08.2016

GBPINR Strategy : 22.08.2016

GBPINR which started recovering from the low of 86.37 continued to quote higher and ended with marginal gains at 68.08 on Friday. The pair has retracted 50% of the immediate fall and is heading towards the next resistance of 61.8% retracement i.e., 88.52. Although the momentum indicator RSI and MACD are on positive note, but the volume continued to be weak, indicating less
buying pressure at higher levels. By above analysis, we expect pair could once again turn lower after testing the resistance of 88.50

USDINR Strategy : 22.08.2016

USDINR Strategy : 22.08.2016
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After consolidating around 66.84 -66.95 for the last few days, USDINR pair re-bounced on Friday and ended 67.12 gaining 0.22%.
The pair has breached intermediate resistance of 67.03 and has settled above it now next resistance key resistance is at 67.20 of major slating trend lines. For the session we expect the pair to test the immediate resistance of 67.20 -67.22.

Currency Market Update : 22.08.2016


Currency Market Update : 22.08.2016
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USDINR US dollar index is trading at 94 . 82 ; showing a turnaround in the Friday US session as markets position for a hawkish statement from the US FED Chair Yellen at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday . Expect volatile trading going into the event as markets would look for clarity in future guidance . Expect US dollar to strengthen for the day on this low data day.

EURINR Euro is trading at 1 .1287 , depreciating against the US dollar in Asian trading session today. Investors have started realizing profits from the Euro rally as the shared currency struggled to break beyond 1 . 1350 . With limited data for the day and a sustained trade below 1 . 13 can lead to further weakness.


Forex (USD/INR) : 22.08.2016

Forex (USD/INR) : 22.08.2016
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The rupee fell to an over three-week low against the dollar, as some federal reserve officials hinted at early rate hike hurting risk assets as well as bullion

The dollar index against six major currencies ended at 94.51, up 0.38% from the previous close of 94.16

Markets opened for the week on a negative note, heading into the Jackson Hole symposium where
expectations for rate hike signaling remain high. Dollar turned positive against most
of the majors late into Friday’s trading and with no major data scheduled for release today, we
can expect continued strength in the green back. Rupee is set to open on a negative note amidst dollar
strength and equity markets’ weakness. We expect the trend to continue for the day.

Debt market : 22.08.2016

Debt market : 22.08.2016

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• Government bonds rose after better-than-expected demand at a weekly debt auction spurred purchases in the secondary market

• The benchmark 7.59% bond maturing in 2026 ended at | 103.31 against the previous close of | 103.03

• The benchmark 7.59% 2026 bond yield ended at 7.10%, down 4 bps from its previous close 

Rupee opens lower at 67.19 per dollar; slips 13 paise : 9.02Am

Rupee opens lower at 67.19 per dollar; slips 13 paise : 9.02Am

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We expect the USD-INR pair to trade in the range of 66.80-67.30/dollar,

The Indian rupee opened lower by 13 paise at 67.19 per dollar on Monday versus 67.06 Friday.

"Rupee is likely to depreciate today as we have seen supportive buying in the USD. However, the rally in USD could be limited to 67.30/dollar."

"We expect the USD-INR pair to trade in the range of 66.80-67.30/dollar,"

The dollar gained against major peers, as hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official added to prospects that US interest rates will increase this year.


Expect bond markets to trade on cautious note: 22.08.2016

Expect bond markets to trade on cautious note: 22.08.2016

 The 10-year benchmark yield is likely to trade in a range of 7.09-7.15 percent today,

 "The bond markets are expected to trade on a cautious note with the recent global and domestic developments. Position building momentum might be limited and gilts might enter a consolidation phase awaiting the next set of key triggers and signals."

 "The 10-year benchmark yield is likely to trade in a range of 7.09-7.15 percent today."

Best Currency Calls, 1st Session: 22.Aug.2016

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 ( Paper Trading Practice for Currency Segment USDINR/EURINR/GBPINR/JPYINR ) 

9.08 Am : Buy USDINR (AUG) SA 67.35 SL 67.24 Target 67.45 / 67.53 / 67.61
9.08 Am : Sell USDINR (AUG) SB 67.19 SL 67.30 Target 67.09 / 67.01 / 66.93
 USDINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : UP SL : 67.10 

9.08 Am : Buy EURINR (AUG) SA 75.90 SL 75.79 Target 76.00 / 76.08 / 76.16
9.08 Am : Sell EURINR (AUG) SB 75.74 SL 75.85 Target 75.64 / 75.56 / 75.48
 EURINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : UP SL : 75.80 

9.08 Am : Buy GBPINR (AUG) SA 87.82 SL 87.71 Target 87.92 / 88.00 / 88.08
9.08 Am : Sell GBPINR (AUG) SB 87.66 SL 87.77 Target 87.56 / 87.48 / 87.40
 GBPINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : DOWN SL : 88.00 

9.08 Am : Buy JPYINR (AUG) SA 66.78 SL 66.67 Target 66.88 / 66.96 / 67.04
9.08 Am : Sell JPYINR (AUG) SB 66.62 SL 66.73 Target 66.52 / 66.44 / 66.36
 JPYINR (AUG) : INTRADAY TREND : DOWN SL : 66.85 

Urjit Patel becomes RBI's 24th Governor Urjit Patel

Urjit Patel becomes RBI's 24th Governor Urjit Patel


Urjit Patel becomes RBI's 24th Governor Urjit Patel, who has an M.Phil degree from Oxford University, was an advisor with Boston Consulting Group before his appointment as the deputy governor at RBI in 2013.

Deputy Governor Urjit Patel will take charge as the 24th Governor of the Reserve Bank of India when incumbent Raghuram Rajan demits office in the first week of September.

Patel, who has an M.Phil degree from Oxford University, was an advisor with Boston Consulting Group before his appointment as the deputy governor at RBI in 2013.

 He was also with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 1990 and 1995 where he covered the US, India, Bahamas and Myanmar desks.

 He was on deputation to the Reserve Bank from the IMF between 1996 and 1997 after which he was a consultant (1998-2001) to the Department of Economic Affairs in the finance ministry.

Patel’s appointment assumes significance given the controversial departure of Rajan, who was publicly targeted by senior BJP leader Subramanian Swamy, and chose not to seek a second term in office.

The government’s image too took a knock, with industry captains and institutional investors criticizing the handling of the issue.

 Former RBI Deputy Governors Rakesh Mohan, Subir Gokarn, Vice Chairman of the NITI Aayog Arvind Panagariya and SBI Chairperson Arundhati Bhattacharya were said to be the other contenders to the post. And while the economy is far more stable than it was when Rajan had taken charge, Patel has a tough act to follow, given the high standards sets by his outgoing predecessor.

 Focus to be on inflation, NPAs Patel’s handling of inflation, interest rates bad loan clean-up at banks, and the upcoming NRI deposit redemptions will be closely watched by the market.

He led the committee that, in 2014, suggested that RBI adopt a formal inflation targetting method and formulate a monetary policy committee (MPC) to take interest rate decisions to achieve its inflation targets. Recently, the government agreed to both clauses, adopting a 4 percent long-term inflation target (+/- 2 percent) and formed a six member MPC -- comprising three nominees each from government and RBI -- in which the Governor would have a casting vote. "It is a strong indication from the government that it believes in policy continuity.

We have seen a very big change in the monetary policy framework and Patel was the author of the report that triggered the change. It sends a very positive message to investors around the world," said JPMorgan Economist Sajjid Chinoy. But even more closely watched will be his ability to maintain the RBI’s autonomy and extract tough promises from the government on fiscal discipline, something that Rajan excelled at.

“The market will quickly try to suss out if the new person has the spine to stand up to New Delhi, and if he doesn’t, the rupee will bear the consequence," Ambit’s Saurabh Mukherjea had said in an interview to CNBC-TV18 last month when Rajan announced that he would quit in September.

There is talk that one of the reasons the government was not too keen on retaining Rajan was that it would need a governor sympathetic to its vision of a monetary policy in the run-up to the 2019 general elections.

Rajan has often been criticized for keeping interest rates high and giving priority to low inflation over growth. Hopes of interest rate cuts have risen in the days following Rajan’s announcement to quit. However, the renewed spike in consumer and wholesale inflation has somewhat tempered the expectations. Patel has also had stints in Reliance Industries and Infrastructure Development Finance Company (IDFC).