Forex - Weekly outlook: August 8 - 12
The U.S. dollar rallied against a basket of major currencies on Friday, hitting a one-week high after data showed U.S. employment increased more than expected in July, raising the probability of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve this year.
The U.S. economy added 255,000 jobs last month, well above expectations for 180,000, the Labor Department said on Friday. June's number was revised up to 292,000 jobs compared with the previous estimate of 287,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%, as more people entered the labor market. The report also showed that average hourly earnings rose month-on-month by 0.3%, beating expectations for a 0.2% gain. They were up 2.6% on the year.
The upbeat data reignited speculation that the Federal Reserve will lift interest rates this year. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in a 15% chance of a rate hike by September. December odds were at around 44%, up from 33% ahead of the report.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, surged to a one-week high of 96.50 in wake of the stronger-than-expected jobs report. It was at 96.19 by late Friday, up almost 0.5% for the day. Against the yen, the dollar rose around 0.6% to 101.79 by late trade.
The greenback fell to a three-week low of 100.67 earlier in the week as investors were disappointed by details of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's fiscal stimulus package.
The euro, meanwhile, slid to a more than one-week low of 1.1046 against the dollar before ending at 1.1086, down 0.4% on the day and 0.8% lower for the week. The greenback also hit a one-week high of 0.9830 against the Swiss franc. The dollar was last at 0.9810 by close of trade Friday, up more than 0.7%. The pair rose 1.2% on the week. Elsewhere, the British pound slumped to a three-week low of 1.3022 against the dollar before climbing back to settle at 1.3070, down 0.3%. Sterling tumbled 1.2% on the week after the Bank of England cut interest rates to a record-low 0.25% on Thursday and launched fresh easing measures in a bid to buffer the economy from a downturn following the Brexit vote.
In the week ahead, investors will continue to focus on U.S. economic reports to gauge if the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand a rate hike in the coming months, with Friday's retail sales data in the spotlight.
Meanwhile, China is to release what will be closely watched trade and inflation data amid ongoing concerns over the health of the world's second biggest economy. Elsewhere, Germany is to publish preliminary data on second quarter economic growth on Friday for further hints on the strength of the euro zone's economy. In the U.K., traders will be eying a report on manufacturing production for fresh clarity on the health of the economy in wake of Britain's decision to leave the European Union.
Outside the G7, traders will be awaiting a monetary policy announcement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday amid growing expectations for a cut in interest rates. Ahead of the coming week,
We compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets. Monday, August 8 Japan is to release data on the current account. China is to publish a report on the trade balance. Canada is to report on building permits. Tuesday, August 9 Australia is to release private sector data on business confidence. China is to produce data on consumer and producer price inflation.
The U.K. is to publish data on industrial and manufacturing production as well as a report on the trade balance. Wednesday, August 10 Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glen Stevens is to speak at an event in Sydney. Thursday, August 11 Financial markets in Japan will remain closed for a national holiday.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference.
The U.S. is to release the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Friday, August 12 New Zealand is to publish data on retail sales. China is to release data on industrial production and fixed asset investment. Germany is to publish a preliminary estimate on second quarter gross domestic product. The U.S is to round up the week with a string of reports on retail sales, producer prices and a preliminary look at consumer sentiment.
