Saturday, May 13, 2017

Currency Market Support and Resistance Level : 15.05.2017

 Currency Market Support and Resistance Level : 15.05.2017

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Mcx Commodity Support and Resistance Levels : 15.05.2017
Mini Mcx Commodity Support and Resistance Levels : 15.05.2017
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Currency Hedging Guide for Import and Export Trader : 15.05.2017

Currency Hedging Guide for Import and Export Trader : 15.05.2017

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Mcx Commodity Support and Resistance Levels : 15.05.2017
Mini Mcx Commodity Support and Resistance Levels : 15.05.2017
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Hedging is a way for a company to minimize or eliminate foreign exchange risk. Two common hedges are forward contracts and options. A forward contract will lock in an exchange rate today at which the currency transaction will occur at the future date.

What is hedging in foreign exchange?
By using a forex hedge properly, a trader who is long a foreign currency pair can be protected from downside risk, while the trader who is short a foreign currency pair can protect against upside risk.

What is a money market hedge?
A money market hedge is a technique for hedging foreign exchange risk using the money market, the financial market in which highly liquid and short-term instruments like Treasury bills, bankers' acceptances and commercial paper are traded.

What is hedging in trading?

Hedging against investment risk means strategically using instruments in the market to offset the risk of any adverse price movements. In other words, investors hedge one investment by making another. Technically, to hedge you would invest in two securities with negative correlations

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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017

Indian Market Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017


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Indian Market Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017
  ( www.rupeedesk.in )

Domestic share indices are expected to move in a narrow range next week as traders are likely to book some profits. However, much of the movement will be dictated by cues from the global equity market. Don't have a very negative view on the market. a fall or consolidation next week can be used for buying. Investors will also react to the retail inflation data, measured by the Consumer Price Index and the new Index of Industrial Production data are released later yesterday that India April WPI Inflation at 3.85% Vs 5.29% (MoM). April WPI Primary Articles Inflation at 1.82% Vs 3.98% (MoM). India April Combined CPI Inflation at 2.99% Vs 3.81% (MoM). India March IIP Growth at 2.7% Vs 1.9% (MoM). Technical analysts believe the benchmark indices are building in some negativity due to lack of momentum at higher levels. Will advise traders to not initiate fresh long position on the index next week. Yesterday, the 51-stock index ended down 21.5 points, or 0.2% at 9400.9 points. Stock-specific action is likely to dominate the equity market next week with about seven major companies reporting their Jan-Mar earnings. Stocks of Hindustan Unilever, Vedanta, Tata Steel, Tata Power, Bank of Baroda, Punjab National Bank and JK Tyre & Industries will hog the limelight as they report their Jan-Mar earnings. Titan Company's shares may fall after the company's Jan-Mar net profit missed analysts estimate. The company reported net profit of 2 bln rupees after market hours yesterday. Stocks of information technology firms are expected to outperform the benchmark indices next week as traders expect some bargain buying in the stock. Yesterday, the Nifty IT index ended 1.1% up at 10367.3 points. Pharmaceutical sector's stocks are expected to underperform next week. There is too much overhang in the sector right now to invest in it. Stocks of Tata Metaliks are expected to fall after the company said it will shut down some operations from May 15.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017


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Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017

Stocks of cement companies are seen mixed next week, with ACC Ltd and Ambuja Cements Ltd likely to see correction. ACC and Ambuja Cements look overbought after the recent rally and both the stocks may go downwards this week. Stocks of ACC and Ambuja Cements gained this week as the companies announced last Friday that they will form a special committee to explore the possibility of a merger. Next week, Dalmia Bharat Ltd, which reported a 94.2% on-year rise in its consolidated net profit for Jan-Mar on Wednesday, is likely to sustain the gains it made post the earnings. Demand for cement has recovered from the slump after demonetisation. Rating agency ICRA had earlier said that cement prices, which had fallen after the currency curbs, reached pre-demonetisation levels in April. Cement makers have hiked prices in different parts of the country since February as availability of currency notes improved. Analysts, however, attributed the recent price hikes to seasonal demand. While the prices are higher on quarter, they are still less than what they were last year. Prices go up during this time of the year as this is a peak time before the onset of monsoon.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017


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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017
  ( www.rupeedesk.in )

 Stocks of most automobile companies are seen trading with a positive bias next week, with Maruti Suzuki India Ltd and Eicher Motors Ltd likely to be in focus. Strong positive trend is expected in most of the automobile stocks in the next week, primarily led by Maruti Suzuki and Eicher Motors, on account of India Meteorological Department's prediction of monsoon rains being higher than predicted earlier. On Wednesday, K.J. Ramesh, the weather bureau's director general, said that the southwest monsoon rains this year were likely to be higher than projected, and could even reach 100% of the long period average. This boosted sentiment and resulted in broad-based buying. Good monsoon rains are likely to drive rural demand due to a rise in disposable income. This is likely to benefit most automobile companies, especially Maruti Suzuki, Eicher Motors, and Hero MotoCorp, which see substantial demand from rural areas. For Maruti Suzuki, prospects remain strong on the back of continued demand for its Baleno hatchback, the Vitara Brezza compact sport utility vehicle, and the Ciaz sedan. The company is set to launch its latest product--the all new Dzire--on Tuesday. The company's aggressive network expansion strategy has boosted its prospects. The carmaker has planned capital expenditure of 45 bln rupees for 2017-18 (Apr-Mar), and a large chunk of which would go towards buying new properties to open sales and service outlets. Eicher Motors Ltd, the market leader in the premium motorcycles segment, is expected to commission its third manufacturing unit in Chennai by August. This will help the Gurugram-based company increase its output to around 825,000 units of Royal Enfield motorcycles in the current financial year. The company's joint venture with Volvo Group, VE Commercial Vehicles, plans to invest nearly 4.5 bln rupees across business verticals in the current financial year started April. The leader in the entry-level motorcycle segment, Hero MotoCorp Ltd, is expected to emerge as one of the biggest beneficiaries of a good monsoon. The company, which sees a large share of the demand from rural markets, plans to launch six new models in 2017-18. The New Delhi-based automaker also plans to invest 25 bln rupees in business development and capacity expansion over a period of two years. The two-wheeler manufacturer also plans to expand its scooter segment to consolidate its position in the two-wheeler market across rural and urban markets. Next week, Stocks of Hero MotoCorp are expected to rise on the back of optimistic commentary from company's management and expectations of a good monsoon. Eicher Motors is also seen aiding positive sentiment on the automobile index. The Nifty Auto index is likely to gain from the positive trend across automobile companies and may rise towards 12000 points.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017


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Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017
  ( www.rupeedesk.in )

Stocks of capital goods companies are expected to trade with a positive bias next week, as sentiment on the sector has improved, following the government's recent ordinance on non-performing assets. Stocks of most companies in the segment, barring Bharat Heavy Electricals, gained 0.9-17% this week, while the BSE Capital Goods Index rose 1.4%. The government's banking ordinance is seen as a big positive for the capital goods sector, as it will boost future investments in areas such as railways, roads, and transmission and distribution. On May 5, the government notified the Banking Regulation (Amendment) Ordinance, 2017, giving the Reserve Bank of India more teeth in the fight against stressed loans in the banking system, estimated at about 10 trln rupees. In the upcoming week, sector heavyweight Larsen & Toubro is likely to see an upside, riding on the back of a 45-bln-rupee order win from the Indian Army, announced yesterday. Market participant would keep an eye on BHEL in the near term, after Norway's sovereign wealth fund Government Pension Fund Global decided not to invest in the company on ethical grounds. The world's largest sovereign wealth fund said BHEL had been excluded based following an assessment of the risk of severe environmental damage due to some state-owned company's projects. Analysts are bullish on the Siemens stock next week, after the company reported a 5.2% on-year rise in total income from operations at 30.51 bln rupees for Jan-Mar, beating expectations of a flat top line. The company's net profit came in at 1.86 bln rupees, down marginally from 1.88 bln rupees for the year-ago period. Its (Siemens's) presence from trains to turbines ensures that the company's revenue growth has high correlation to the government and private sector spending.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017

IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017


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IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017
  ( www.rupeedesk.in )

 The positive momentum in information technology companies is expected to continue next week owing to low valuations. The stocks in the IT sector were beaten down over the past few weeks following growth concerns and rising visa issues. Technical analysts expect the negativity in the stocks to bottom out and to rise in the upcoming sessions. However, persisting strength of the rupee against the dollar is seen weighing on the sector. After sustaining higher lows this week, the Nifty IT index is expected to stay at even higher lows next week as well. Meanwhile, US-based IT major Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp reportedly handed pink slips to nearly 10,000 employees this week, citing sub-par performance. Concerns on immigration to the US, automation, and a push to hire locals in the workforce have prompted IT companies to rationalise their Indian workforce. This has led laid off workers to seek legal and regulatory recourse. As the wage arbitrage enjoyed by Indian IT companies disappears, more Indian IT companies are likely to fire employees en masse, which may lift their stocks further. Next week, Stocks of HCL Technologies are seen gaining following robust earnings reported by the company on Thursday. For Jan-Mar, the company reported a consolidated net profit of 24.7 bln rupees, up from 20.6 bln rupees a quarter ago.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017


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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017
  ( www.rupeedesk.in )

Stocks of metal and mining companies are likely to primarily track cues from the Jan-Mar earnings announcements scheduled next week. Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Vedanta, and Jindal Stainless (Hisar) will report their Jan-Mar earnings in the coming week. While Jindal Steel & Power will report its earnings on May 23. Rest of the metal stocks are seen continuing with the positive trend. Stocks of Tata Steel, Vedanta and JSW Steel gained up to 5.8% this week, with the Nifty Metal index ending up almost 2% compared with the previous week close. The government on Thursday imposed a five-year anti-dumping duty on hot-rolled flat steel products, which saw the stocks rise yesterday. The trend is likely to continue in the coming week. Strong volumes and improved realisations in the domestic market and higher spreads in European operations are likely to help Tata Steel Ltd post robust earnings for the quarter ended March, even as higher coking coal costs may cap the upside. The company's net profit on a consolidated basis is seen rising over five times sequentially to 10.50 bln rupees. Net profit of JSW Steel is seen rising 2.2% sequentially to 7.46 bln rupees, while the consolidated operating profit is seen at 29.06 bln rupees. Higher raw material costs, particularly of coking coal, are expected to weigh on the earnings of JSW Steel for the March quarter, even as the company's sales and realizations are seen improving sequentially. Market Participants sees the metal-to-oil conglomerate Vedanta Ltd's consolidated net profit at 24.49 bln rupees in Jan-Mar, as against a loss in the same quarter in the previous year. Higher prices of most base metals, particularly zinc, and firm crude oil prices are expected to aid Vedanta Ltd's earnings in Jan-Mar, lifting its consolidated net profit over 31% sequentially. Jindal Stainless announced its Jan-Mar earnings yesterday. The company reported a net profit of 1.61 bln rupees for Jan-Mar, against a loss of 1.71 bln rupees a year ago. Revenue from operations increased 23.7% to 24.67 bln rupees. The stock is expected to rise at the start of the session next week.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017


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Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017
  ( www.rupeedesk.in )

 Stocks of public sector oil refiners and retailers Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd are expected to have a strong showing next week. These companies are on solid ground and have been benefiting from the rise in domestic demand for fuels and robust refining and marketing margins, which lends them a positive outlook for the medium to long term. In the absence of any major sectoral triggers, stocks of oil companies could be impacted by crude oil prices, news flow, and sentiment in the broad market. Crude oil futures in India and abroad are likely to rise marginally next week as major producers hinted at an extension of the output cut deal beyond the initially agreed six months. To push up prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers late last year agreed to cut output by 1.8 mln barrels a day for a sixmonth period that ends June. Market participants are now hopeful of an extension of the output cut deal into the second half of the calendar year, as hinted by major producers. OPEC and other major oil producers are scheduled to meet on May 25 to take a decision over whether the production cuts currently in force would be extended beyond June. Also, a fall in US crude oil inventories and output of the oil cartel may lift global prices. However, rising output in the US is likely to cap the upside and prevent a sharp appreciation in prices. Stocks of upstream players such as Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd and Oil India Ltd may witness a rise on account of the likely appreciation in oil prices. Any major shift in the dollar-rupee exchange rate can also impact stocks of oil companies. If the dollar weakens against the rupee, it could add to the woes of upstream companies. This is because upstream companies price oil and gas in dollars and a weak greenback leads to a decline in actual price realisation in rupee terms. On the other hand, refining companies stand to gain from a weaker dollar, as it would reduce their outgo towards purchase of crude oil and gas. As far as technical charts are concerned, the view on refining companies' shares is largely positive. Upstream companies, however, are expected to consolidate.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017


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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017
( www.rupeedesk.in )

 Bank stocks are seen largely down in the coming week as a slew of negative news reports this week is seen weighing on the sector. Stocks of private lenders are seen down on concerns over the divergence in their bad loan numbers as assessed by them vis-a-vis the Reserve Bank of India. Yesterday, YES Bank's shares fell nearly 7% after the lender's annual report for 2016-17 (Apr-Mar) showed that the gap between its assessment of gross bad loans at the end of March 2016 and that of the Reserve Bank of India was 41.77 bln rupees. The sheer difference in divergence is in our view a big red flag and raises concerns on the actual practice of prudence at YES (Bank). This has raised concerns that YES Bank may deliver a negative shock out of such divergences in future. The firm said it will be watching the bank closely, with a high likelihood of a "downside risk" to their earnings estimate. The fall in YES Bank stocks had a spill-over effect on shares of other private sector lenders. Also, several media reports, citing a Credit Suisse report, yesterday said such high divergences are seen in financials of other private banks such as ICICI Bank and Axis Bank as well. Stocks of ICICI Bank ended down 1.2%, while those of Axis Bank fell 2.7%. On the other hand, high capital requirements amidst piling bad loans, which have triggered prompt corrective action by the RBI in two small public sector banks, is seen weighing on the sector. On May 9, citing a high net non-performing asset ratio and negative return on assets, RBI initiated prompt corrective action on IDBI Bank, which would mean greater regulatory scrutiny on the bank's business and its use of capital. After IDBI Bank became the first lender to face such action after the RBI imposed more stringent criteria in this regard on Apr 13, UCO Bank yesterday reported that the central bank had also initiated prompt corrective action for it. At the time of notification of the norms, RBI had said that in addition to higher scrutiny, merger and consolidation of poor performing banks might also be an option to bring the asset quality issue under control. While these concerns persist, we believes that given the fact that the Nifty Bank index touched a new lifetime high of 23000 this week before the negative news flow came in, buying in banking stocks should continue in the next week as the underlying sentiment remains strong. Jan-Mar earnings of banks will also lend cues to the market. Central Bank of India, Karnataka Bank and Jammu & Kashmir Bank are scheduled to detail their Jan-Mar earnings on Saturday, whereas South Indian Bank, Andhra Bank, Punjab National Bank, Dhanlaxmi Bank, Punjab & Sind Bank, Karur Vysya Bank and Bank of Baroda will detail their results next week.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017


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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017
  ( www.rupeedesk.in )

Stocks of most fast moving consumer goods companies are seen rising next week on expectations of good monsoons and as remonetisation nears completion. Companies are also likely to see healthy volume growth in the near term as they focus more on wholesale trade and deeper reach in rural areas. While the goods and services tax may disrupt trade in the first half of 2017-18 (Apr-Mar), strong growth is expected in the second half. Domestic business of most companies would be driven by new product launches as well as possible price hikes before the roll out of the new indirect tax regime on Jul 1. Companies would also like to focus on foreign business in the face of uncertainty at home. We continue to like GCPL (Godrej Consumer Products) as it has presence in high-growth categories, focus on premiumisation with new innovative product launches, and cross pollination of products.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017

Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017


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 Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017
  ( www.rupeedesk.in )

Stocks of telecom companies are seen trading largely with a positive bias in the upcoming week. However, large gains are not expected as broader market is seen in a narrow band next week. During the week, Bharti Airtel posted a fall of 25.9% on quarter in consolidated net profit, on competition from Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd's free data and voice services. Despite RJio concerns, the New Delhi-based company's total customer base in India as of Mar 31 grew nearly 3% on quarter to 273.6 mln, while data customer base in India rose 4.5% to 57.3 mln users in Jan-Mar. This had improved the sentiment of investors on the stock, which rose nearly 6% in the week, leading to optimism in the sector. Optimism in the stock is seen continuing and the stock may rise 3% over the upcoming sessions. Idea Cellular is set to detail the earnings for the Jan-Mar quarter on Saturday and is expected to post consolidated net loss at 7.7 bln rupees, as against a loss of 3.84 bln rupees in the previous quarter. The company's top line in Jan-Mar is likely to decline 5.7% on quarter to 81.7 bln rupees. A poor performance by company may see the stock to fall in the week while a robust performance sees the stock gaining 2-3%. Further details on the merger plans of Idea Cellular and Vodafone India might also lead to positive momentum in the stock next week. Yesterday, Tata Teleservices Maharashtra reported a loss of 13.6 bln rupees as compared to a loss of 4.1 bln rupees a quarter ago owing to a one-time loss of 9.6 bln rupees arising out of impairment linked to spectrum investments. An analyst expects the stock to open down on Monday and is likely to hit a new low in the upcoming week

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017


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Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 15 to 19.05.2017
  ( www.rupeedesk.in )

 The earnings of pharmaceutical companies for the March quarter will be the major trigger for the stocks of these companies next week, as investors brace for weak results due to pressure in both domestic and US markets. This week, while the earnings of Dr Reddy's Laboratories missed estimates, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals scaled down its guidance for sales during the exclusivity period for the Zetia generic in the US market. Glenmark's management said that the company expects sales of the generic of Zetia in the US to be lower than $200 mln during the exclusivity period. The company had guided for sales of $200 mln-$250 mln. IDBI Capital downgraded the Glenmark stock to 'hold' to incorporate a lower pick-up in sales of the Zetia generic. Stocks of Dr Reddy's are seen weak on charts. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Lupin, Cipla, Aurobindo Pharma, and Cadila Healthcare are likely to report their earnings later this month. Earnings of pharmaceutical companies are seen weighed down by a stronger rupee, and pricing and regulatory pressure both in India and overseas. The government's support for unbranded generic drugs and its likely plan to enhance the scope of the Drug (Price Control) Order are seen weighing on profitability on the domestic front. In the US, consolidation of distribution channels, greater competition, and regulatory issues are the major headwinds for Indian companies, apart from strength in the rupee against the dollar. At 64.2975, the rupee has strengthened over 5% against the dollar so far this year.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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