Friday, April 21, 2017

Indian Market Outlook for the week - 24 to 28.04.2017

Indian Market Outlook for the week - 24 to 28.04.2017


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Indian Market Outlook for the week - 24 to 28.04.2017
  ( www.rupeedesk.in )

 The earnings for Jan-Mar by index heavyweights Reliance Industries and Kotak Mahindra Bank, and the outcome of the first round of presidential elections in France will likely determine the direction of domestic benchmark indices next week. At the same time, usual volatility will prevail ahead of the expiry of the April derivative series on Thursday, as market participants ponder over rolling over their current positions. The benchmark indices recent lacklustre movement is likely to continue next week, with action being dominated by individual stocks and sectors. In the absence of major domestic triggers, benchmark indices have moved in tandem with global equity markets in recent sessions. The presidential elections in France are a key event for financial market participants. The first round of French presidential elections will conclude over the weekend, with only two of the current 11 candidates expected to get through to the second round. Experts view fear that a victory for Front National leader Marine Le Pen may bring uncertainty over the future of the European Union and the euro currency. Apart from external concerns, banking stocks direction next week will likely be determined by the earnings of Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank. Investors may also await more clarity from the government on reports that it may increase the loan tenure for the telecom industry.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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Metal Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017
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 The stocks of most metal and mining companies are seen continuing their consolidation next week, as they await triggers from quarterly earnings for Jan-Mar. The sentiment for shares of metal companies is weak given the recent correction in base metal prices globally due to geo-political tensions, and concerns of growth in major economies, including China. With the exception of aluminium major Hindalco Industries, shares of most metal companies have corrected this week. The stocks of Hindalco Industries gained close to 3% this week, as the stock was supported by higher aluminium prices globally on reports of some capacities being shut in western China. The stocks of Jindal Steel and Power, which were among the major laggards this week with over 8% losses, are also seen extending their fall. Weighed down by losses in most of its constituents, the Nifty Metal index ended lower for the second consecutive week yesterday. The Nifty Metal index is probably among the only sectoral index which has underperformed the Nifty 50 this year, and there is no strength technically. Fundamentally, earnings in the next few weeks, and prices of commodities globally will be the key triggers for these stocks. The stocks of most steel companies have been weak recently due to a surge in coking coal costs, but these shares could see some buying next week as most company officials have said they do not see a major hit to their margins.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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IT Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017
  ( www.rupeedesk.in )

 The shares of information technology companies are seen trading with a negative bias in the coming week. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd announced its earnings for the March quarter on Tuesday, reporting a 2.5% drop in consolidated net profit. The company, however, remains optimistic about the future, in sharp contrast to its peers. While Cyient reported a 16.7% sequential fall in consolidated net profit for Jan-Mar, Mindtree fared better than expected, with a 1.8% sequential rise in net profit for Jan-Mar. Geopolitical headwinds returned to the Indian information technology sector this week with Australia on Wednesday scrapping its skilled visa programme, leading to uncertainty, though industry body NASSCOM was quick to point out that the move was unlikely to hit Indian IT workers. On the same day, US President Donald Trump, in a renewed attempt to push forward his mandate of "Buy America, Hire American" themed reforms, signed an executive order calling for a tightening of the H-1B visa programme. Though the move is seen as having no immediate impact on H-1B visas, the long-term implications of Trump's intentions remain unclear. Next week, investors will track the Jan-Mar earnings of Wipro Ltd, whose shares are seen trading in the range of 470-497 rupees. In the coming week, support for TCS shares is seen at around 2,252 rupees and resistance at around 2,386 rupees, while Infosys shares are seen trading at 901-950 rupees.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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FMCG Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017
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 The Fast moving consumer goods companies are seen trading in a tight range next week as most companies are likely to gain some momentum in hopes of good southwest monsoon this year. India is likely to receive "normal" southwest monsoon rainfall for the second consecutive year in 2017, despite the threat of El Nino conditions developing, according to the India Meteorological Department. Southwest monsoon rainfall in India is likely to be 96% of the long-period average, the weather bureau said. Monsoon has a large impact on sales of FMCG companies, especially in rural areas. Good rains during the Jun-Sep monsoon also help soften commodity prices, which in turn helps companies struggling with high input costs. Sales of most FMCG companies had taken a hit post demonetisation. Though the effect has nearly worn out due to remonetisation, growth in wholesale channel remains sluggish. While volume growth for companies like ITC, Hindustan Unilever, and Dabur India is likely to remain in low single digit in the near term, Marico, Godrej Consumer Products and Britannia Industries may see a 6-8% growth. Some companies could also opt for price hikes before the goods and services tax rates are finalised. A pullback of promotional offers and campaigns can also be expected in the days to come.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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Cement Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017
The share of cement companies are seen positive next week, as recent price hikes undertaken by these firms are seen aiding profits. Since February, cement manufacturers have increased prices by 20-70 rupees per 50-kg bag in different parts of the country. The price hikes came in the wake of a revival in cement demand, which was hit by the government's decision to demonetise 500 and 1,000 rupee currency notes in November to curb black money. The prices have improved in last couple of months and may go up further, as the demand is expected to increase. In the Union Budget for 2017-18 (Apr-Mar), the government had allocated a record 3.96 trln rupees to infrastructure. This, along with the push for affordable housing, is seen positive for the industry and is likely drive demand for cement. Investors will also track the financial results of cement companies for Jan-Mar. ACC Ltd was the first major cement company to report its earnings for the quarter ended March. Today, the company reported a consolidated net profit of 2.1 bln rupees for Jan-Mar, down 8.9% on year. Other cement companies will report their earnings in the coming days. High prices of petroleum coke and high freight costs could hurt realisations in Jan-Mar quarter.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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Auto Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017
  ( www.rupeedesk.in )

 The shares of most automobile companies are likely to trade in a narrow range next week, ahead of earnings releases for the March quarter. Maruti Suzuki India and TVS Motor Co will be in focus as they will detail their Jan-Mar earnings on Thursday. Maruti Suzuki, the country's largest manufacturer of passenger cars, is likely to witness some pressure on its results due to the commissioning of its Gujarat plant in February. Initially, the company may face some pressure due to higher depreciation costs and fixed expenses at its Gujarat plant. So, that may impact earnings to an extent. However, outlook for the company, which has a 47% market share in the passenger car segment, remains strong due to its portfolio of premium products such as the Baleno hatchback and Vitara Brezza sport utility vehicle. While the Ignis hatchback has not done considerably well and has not met expectations of the company, other models are doing well and aid the company's growth outlook. The country's largest two-wheeler maker, Hero MotoCorp, is likely to benefit from the forecast of a normal monsoon by the India Meteorological Department the company derives huge demand from rural regions. TVS Motor Co is expected to post better earnings for Jan-Mar as the company had the minimum impact of demonetisation in the entire two-wheeler space.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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Pharma Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017
  ( www.rupeedesk.in )

 The Pharmaceutical stocks are likely to remain weak as market participants expect companies' earnings for Jan-Mar to be subdued due to pricing pressure in the US and domestic market. We have forecast weak US sales growth on a sequential basis for most companies due to high competition in key products, base business erosion, and limited key launches. The shares of Aurobindo Pharma, which is also expected to report weak earnings, are seen falling to 622 rupees, below which it is likely to find support at 611 rupees. Regulatory issues around many companies' drug manufacturing units are also seen affecting stocks. Yesterday, reports said that US FDA has noted incomplete laboratory records among potential manufacturing violations when it inspected Sun Pharmaceutical Industries' Dadra facility. The regulator had cited 11 adverse observations after its inspection. The observations at the facility were similar to those noted at the company's Halol facility, which received a warning letter in December 2015. The shares of India's largest pharmaceutical company were the worst hit on the Nifty 50 this week as investors grew jittery about its persisting regulatory woes. Earlier this month, Indoco Remedies had also received a warning letter for its Goa facility. Most companies have units that have received warning letters from the US FDA for a unit or the regulator has cited adverse observations for their facilities. Wockhardt is among the worst hit, with three of its facilities at Chikalthana, Waluj, and Ankleshwar under US FDA's import alert. The regulator also issued a warning letter to its arm's Morton Grove facility in March. Next week, shares of the company are expected to trade weak and are seen finding support at 716 rupees.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

 Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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 Telecom Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017
  ( www.rupeedesk.in )

 The Movement in shares of telecommunication companies is likely to be stock specific next week. We expect shares of Tata Communications Ltd and Bharti Airtel Ltd to rise, while those of Idea Cellular Ltd to witness price correction. The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday asked banks to give immediate attention to the telecom sector, and asked them to review their exposure by Jun 30. Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular shouldn't see much impact. As much as 60% of their debt is related to spectrum and the rest is foreign debt. The sector has been witnessing pressure on tariff and revenue after the entry of Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd. The subsidiary of Reliance Industries Ltd offered free data and voice services for over five months before announcing aggressive tariffs. Incumbent telecom operators have also announced matching tariff plans to compete. The sector is also in the midst of a legal battle between operators. Bharti Airtel has moved Telecom Disputes Settlement and Appellate Tribunal against the partial rollback of Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd's 'Summer Surprise' plan. Just a day after withdrawing this plan for new users, Reliance Jio announced a new one-time 'Jio Dhan Dhana Dhan' offer to sweeten the deal for subscribers who could not avail of the withdrawn scheme. Rising competition in the sector has also led to consolidation. Bharti Airtel has announced two separate acquisitions of Tikona Digital Networks Pvt Ltd and the Indian arm of Norway's Telenor ASA. Vodafone India and Idea Cellular have also announced a merger, which is pending regulatory approvals.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017
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 The Bank stocks are likely to be volatile with a negative bias next week because of concern about a rise in provisioning in Jan-Mar, as well as due to the expiry of the May derivatives series, scheduled for Thursday. The action is expected to be stock-specific because of the announcement of earnings for the quarter ended March. Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, IDFC Bank, and Indian Bank will detail their earnings next week. So far, HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank and YES Bank have reported healthy growth in bottomline, though provisions rose sharply. For HDFC Bank, a part of the rise in provisions was because some loans that had availed dispensation for repayment due to demonetisation slipped into the bad loan category in Jan- Mar. IndusInd Bank and YES Bank had to make standard asset provisions against a specific loan for takeover activity in the cement sector, on the directive of the Reserve Bank of India. Since the deal is likely to be concluded soon, these banks are expecting reversal of the provision. The cement account is likely that of Jaiprakash Associates Ltd, which is close to inking a deal to sell its cement business to UltraTech Cement Ltd. Further, the RBI's new norms on higher standard asset provisioning and additional disclosures are seen as a concern for most banks. The RBI has asked banks to make additional disclosures if there is a major divergence between reporting of bad loans by lenders and that assessed by the central bank under the supervisory process. It said that the merger of its five associate banks should lead to synergies and increase SBI's balance sheet strength, as well as profitability from a long-term perspective.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017
  ( www.rupeedesk.in )

 The shares of public sector oil refining and retailing companies--Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd--are likely to move higher next week on the back of strong technical charts and robust fundamentals. These three companies are backed by strong fundamentals, including rising domestic demand for fuels and robust refining and marketing margins, which lends them a positive outlook for the medium to long term. In the absence of any major sectoral triggers, crude oil prices, news flow and the broad market sentiment could impact the shares of oil companies. Prices of crude oil are likely to remain under pressure next week because of rising production in the US and amid uncertainty about major producers extending output cut beyond June. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih had said production cut deal could be extended for another three or six months beyond June. The prospect of the extension of the output deal was reiterated by Kuwait. According to media reports, Kuwait's Oil Minister Essam al-Marzouq has said the country expects Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producers to extend the agreement. However, the market has not reacted to these statements given that such news is released on a daily basis, and OPEC's goal to erode crude inventories to five-year average is far from being achieved. Scepticism is therefore warranted, especially as it is still unclear whether the new deal will apply for six or only three months, and whether non-OPEC countries will sign up to it. OPEC and other producers had agreed to cut output by 1.8 mln barrels per day in Jan-Jun. Stocks of upstream players such as Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd and Oil India Ltd may witness negativity on account of the weakness in oil prices. If the dollar weakens against the rupee, it could add to the woes of upstream companies' stocks. This is because these companies price oil and gas in dollars and a weaker greenback means lower actual price realisation in rupee terms. On the other hand, refining companies stand to gain from a weaker dollar, as it would reduce their outgo towards purchase of crude oil and gas.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017

Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017


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Capital Goods Stocks Outlook for the week – 24 to 28.04.2017
  ( www.rupeedesk.in )

 The shares of capital goods companies are likely to trade in a range next week, due to lack of significant triggers and an overall grim outlook for fresh orders in the near term. Sector bellwether Larsen & Toubro could see a slight upside, riding on recent construction order wins worth 26.94 bln rupees. The stock is likely to trade in the range of 1,695-1,700 rupees in the upcoming week. So far in 2017, shares of the company have gained 25%. The power generation vertical of BHEL is still largely muted. However, we are bullish on Thermax in the near-to-mid term, following some positive management commentary. The company is expected to announce decent order inflows in the next few weeks. Siemens stock is likely to be range-bound in the forthcoming week, but could gain in the short term as the company is seen reporting robust net profit and net sales in the quarter ended March.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.
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Live Currency Intraday Trading Tips, 5th Session: 21.APR.2017

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