FMCG Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

FMCG Sector Analysis  K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

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FMCG Sector Analysis  K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

FMCG Sector Analysis  K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

FMCG Sector – 22.02.2025  

By K Karthik Raja  

Key Factors Affecting & Reasons:  

- Rural demand recovery slow; inflation pressures remain.  

- Rising raw material costs impacting margins.  

- Festive season demand and price hikes provide some relief.  

- Government policies on GST and subsidies in focus.  

Key Watch:  

- Inflation data, rural consumption trends.  

- Crude oil prices impacting packaging costs.  

- Q4 earnings and volume growth metrics.  

Volume Analysis:  

- High volumes on declines signal institutional selling pressure.  

- Accumulation possible near strong support zones.  

Chart Analysis & Observations:  

- Trading below 50, 150, 200 DMAs signals bearish trend.  

- Resistance: 55670 (50 DMA), 59408 (150 DMA), 58759 (200 DMA).  

- Support: 51800 (recent low); break may lead to 50800.  

- RSI at 24.33 indicates oversold conditions.  

- CCI at -217.85 shows deep weakness.  

- MACD bearish crossover with widening gap reflects continued pressure.  

Stocks to Watch:  

- Positive on dips: HUL, ITC, Dabur.  

- Avoid mid-cap FMCG until signs of reversal appear.  

Market Insights:  

Short-term view (1-2 weeks): Weakness persists; possible bounce if oversold indicators reverse.  

Long-term view (3-6 months): Bullish above 59400; below 50800, deeper correction likely.  

Disclaimer: Informational purposes only, not financial advice. Do your own research.

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Pharma Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

Pharma Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

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Pharma Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

Pharma Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

Nifty Pharma Sector Analysis - 22.02.2025  

By K Karthik Raja  

Key Factors Affecting & Reasons:  

- Global demand trends and USFDA approvals influencing sentiment.  

- Currency fluctuations impacting export profitability.  

- Government healthcare policies and domestic demand supporting growth.  

- Rising raw material costs creating margin pressures.  

Key Watch:  

- USFDA inspection outcomes.  

- INR movement against USD.  

- Domestic drug pricing policy changes.  

- Q4 earnings with focus on margins and revenue growth.  

Volume Analysis:  

- Increased volumes during recent declines indicate institutional selling.  

- Watch for volume spikes near support zones for potential accumulation.  

Chart Analysis & Observations:  

- Price below 50, 150, and 200 DMAs shows bearish trend.  

- Resistance: 21690 (200 DMA), 22044 (50 DMA), 22387 (150 DMA).  

- Support: 20300 (recent low); breach may drag to 19800.  

- RSI (14) at 33.44: Approaching oversold zone.  

- CCI (-162.76): Deep in negative territory, hinting weakness.  

- MACD: Bearish crossover with widening gap indicates downward pressure.  

Stocks to Watch:  

- Positive bias on dips: Sun Pharma, Cipla, Dr. Reddy's.  

- Caution on mid-cap pharma stocks until stability emerges.  

Market Insights:  

Short-term view (1-2 weeks):  

- Weak bias unless index crosses 21690.  

- Possible relief rally if oversold indicators reverse.  

Long-term view (3-6 months):  

- Bullish above 22390; targets 23000+.  

- If 19800 breaks, caution as deeper correction likely.  

Disclaimer: Informational purposes only, not financial advice. Do your own research.

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Auto Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

Auto Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

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Auto Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

Auto Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

Auto Sector Analysis - 22.02.2025  

By K Karthik Raja

Key Factors Affecting & Reasons:  

1. Market Trend: The index has witnessed a strong uptrend since 2020, with a peak in 2024, followed by a correction.  

2. Moving Averages:  

   - The price is trading below the 50-day, 150-day, and 200-day moving averages, indicating bearish momentum.  

3. Relative Strength Index (RSI): At 33.81, the RSI is near the oversold region, suggesting possible reversal signs.  

4. Commodity Channel Index (CCI): -163.69, indicating the index is in an extremely oversold zone.  

5. MACD Indicator: The MACD line is below the signal line, confirming ongoing bearish momentum.  

6. Volume Analysis: There has been an increase in volume on recent declines, suggesting selling pressure.  

Key Watch:  

- Support Levels: 21,500 & 21,000  

- Resistance Levels: 22,800 & 23,300  

- Breakout Confirmation: A move above 22,500 could indicate bullish strength.  

- Sector Rotation: Watch for fund movements in auto stocks.  

Volume Analysis:  

- Volume has picked up around key support levels, signaling potential accumulation.  

- A spike in volume with price action could confirm a reversal.  

Dow Theory Chart Analysis & Observations:  

- The recent higher high & lower low structure suggests a downtrend.  

- Parabolic SAR dots above price indicate continued bearishness.  

- Long-term trendline support around 21,500 must hold to avoid further downside.  

Stocks to Watch:  

1. Maruti Suzuki (NSE: MARUTI) – Strong fundamentals but testing key support.  

2. Tata Motors (NSE: TATAMOTORS) – Consolidating, awaiting breakout.  

3. Eicher Motors (NSE: EICHERMOT) – Near trendline support.  

4. M&M (NSE: M&M) – Key player in EV and SUV market, monitoring price action.  

Market Insights (Short & Long-Term View):  

- Short Term: Bearish; cautious trading recommended.  

- Long Term: Positive; auto sector demand is expected to grow with EV adoption.  

Disclaimer:  

This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Please conduct your research before making investment decisions.

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Realty Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

Realty Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

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Realty Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

Realty Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

Realty Sector Analysis - 22.02.2025  

By K Karthik Raja  

Key factors affecting and reasons:  

- Global cues, interest rates, and economic growth trends drive the sector.  

- Government housing initiatives and rising urban demand support long-term growth.  

- Inflation and input cost pressures remain key risks.  

Key watch:  

- RBI rate decisions and their impact on housing loans.  

- Real estate demand trends in tier-1 and tier-2 cities.  

- Policy reforms or incentives for affordable housing.  

Volume analysis:  

- Recent volume upticks indicate potential accumulation at lower levels.  

- Selling pressure observed on rallies; caution advised.  

Chart analysis and observations:  

- Price below 50, 150, and 200 DMA shows bearish momentum.  

- Key support near 840; breach may test 800 levels.  

- Resistance at 955 (50 DMA) and 1011 (150 DMA); breakout above these may signal reversal.  

- RSI at 37.44 suggests nearing oversold territory; MACD still bearish.  

Stocks to watch:  

- Positive bias: DLF, Godrej Properties, Oberoi Realty.  

- Wait for confirmation before entering weaker names.  

Market insights:  

Short-term view (1-2 weeks):  

- Bearish to sideways; recovery possible if it sustains above 887.  

Long-term view (3-6 months):  

- Bullish bias if 800 support holds; above 1025 can resume uptrend targeting 1100+.  

Disclaimer: Informational purposes only, not financial advice. Do your own research.

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IT Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

IT Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

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IT Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

IT Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

IT Sector Analysis - 22.02.2025  

By K Karthik Raja  

Factors Affecting & Reasons:  

1. Global Tech Trends – Nasdaq performance, AI adoption, and IT spending trends impact Indian IT stocks.  

2. Rupee Movement – A weaker INR benefits IT companies due to USD revenue exposure.  

3. Earnings Reports – Strong earnings can reverse the bearish trend.  

4. Geopolitical & Regulatory Factors – U.S. visa policies and global economic conditions affect sentiment.  

Key Watch:  

- Support Levels: 40,500 (200-day MA), 38,000 (next major support)  

- Resistance Levels: 43,000 (50-day MA), 42,250 (historical high)  

- Indicators:  

  - RSI at 34.23 – Near oversold, potential bounce.  

  - MACD – Bearish crossover, signaling downward pressure.  

  - CCI at -165 – Strong downward momentum.  

Volume Analysis:  

- 26.63M volume recorded – High selling pressure.  

- Declining volume on up-moves – Weak buying interest.  

Dow Theory Chart Analysis:  

- Primary Trend: Long-term uptrend still intact but showing weakness.  

- Secondary Trend: Current pullback is a corrective phase in the larger trend.  

- Minor Trends: Short-term bearish as price trades below key moving averages.  

- Higher Highs & Higher Lows?  

   - The recent lower high and lower low signal a potential trend reversal if price stays below 40,500.  

   - Confirmation needed: A strong breakout above 42,500 can revalidate the uptrend.  

 Chart Observations:  

- Moving Averages: Price trading below 50-day and 150-day MA → Short-term bearish  

- Trendline Break: A breakdown from previous support indicates weakness.  

- Parabolic SAR: Bearish as SAR dots are above price action.  

Stocks to Watch:  

- Infosys (INFY) – Near key support; potential bounce.  

- TCS – Strong fundamentals, but correction phase persists.  

- HCL Tech – RSI nearing oversold; watch for a rebound.  

- Wipro – Weak structure; needs confirmation before entry.  

Market Insights:  

Short-Term View (Next 1-3 months)  

- Oversold conditions suggest a possible short-term bounce.  

- Resistance at 42,250–43,000 is crucial for a trend reversal.  

- Volatility likely due to global uncertainty in IT spending.  

Long-Term View (6 months - 1 year)  

- Holding 40,500 support is key for sustained growth.  

- AI & digital transformation trends to drive IT demand.  

- If price reclaims 43,000, expect new highs towards 45,000+.  

Disclaimer:  

This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please conduct your own research or consult with a professional before making any investment decisions.

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PSU Bank Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

PSU Bank Sector Analysis  K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

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PSU Bank Sector Analysis  K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

PSU Bank Sector Analysis  K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

PSU Bank Sector Analysis - 22.02.2025  

By K Karthik Raja

Key Factors Affecting and Reasons:  

- Global economic trends: Rate decisions from central banks and global inflation trends are influencing banking stocks.  

- Government policies: PSU banks benefit from government capital infusion plans and reforms.  

- Interest rate movements: Higher rates improve NIMs for banks, supporting profitability.  

- Credit growth and NPA trends: Improving asset quality and rising credit demand bolster the sector.  

Key Watch:  

- Upcoming RBI policy: Impact on lending rates and liquidity.  

- Quarterly results: Watch for NIMs, loan growth, and asset quality.  

- Global cues: US Fed moves and global bond yields affecting FII inflows.  

- Privatization news: Government plans on PSU bank privatization could trigger momentum.  

Volume Analysis:  

- Recent volume spikes indicate heavy institutional activity.  

- A notable volume surge during downswings suggests profit booking at higher levels.  

- Sustained higher volumes near support zones could hint at accumulation.  

Chart Analysis and Observations:  

- Moving averages:  

  - Price trading below the 50, 150, and 200 DMA signals bearish momentum.  

  - 200 DMA at 6817 acts as a strong resistance; reclaiming this level can reverse trends.  

- Parabolic SAR: Current positioning above the price suggests continued downtrend pressure.  

- Indicators:  

  - RSI (14) at 42.10: Near oversold territory but not signaling reversal yet.  

  - CCI (-92.33): Indicates bearish sentiment with potential for bounce if it crosses -100 upwards.  

  - MACD: Bearish crossover with negative histogram suggests weakness persists.  

- Support and resistance levels:  

  - Support: Around 5950 (recent low); breach could take it to approximately 5700.  

  - Resistance: Around 6320 (50 DMA), followed by 6658 (150 DMA).  

Stocks to Watch:  

- Positive bias if market rebounds: SBI, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank.  

- Caution: Avoid weaker PSU names until clear reversal emerges.  

Market Insights:  

Short-term view (1-2 weeks):  

- Weak bias unless index reclaims 6320.  

- Traders should be cautious; oversold indicators may offer relief rallies.  

Long-term view (3-6 months):  

- Structural trend remains bullish if 5700 support holds.  

- Break above 6817 could resume the prior uptrend targeting 7200 and above.  

Disclaimer:  

This analysis is for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before investing.

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Private Bank Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja - Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

Private Bank Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja - Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

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Private Bank Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja - Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

Private Bank Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja - Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

Private Bank Sector Analysis - 22.02.2025  

By K Karthik Raja  

Key Factors Affecting & Reasons:  

- Stable credit growth but rising NPAs in select banks  

- Regulatory changes on capital norms and lending guidelines  

- Improved deposit mobilization amid competitive interest rates  

- Tech investments boosting digital banking adoption  

Key Watch:  

- RBI policy decisions on interest rates  

- Q4 earnings guidance and asset quality commentary  

- Loan growth trends in retail and corporate segments  

Volume Analysis:  

- Recent volume uptick suggests renewed investor interest  

- Sustained volume above average indicates accumulation  

Chart Analysis & Observations:  

- Trend: Recovering from recent lows; forming higher lows pattern  

- Moving Averages:  

  - Trading near 50-day MA (24563.43); above 200-day MA (25212.86) signals positive bias  

- Indicators:  

  - RSI (48.50): Neutral zone, watch for cross above 50 for momentum shift  

  - CCI (-10.97): Consolidation with mild positive bias  

  - MACD: Converging lines hint at potential bullish crossover  

- Support: 24370 | Resistance: 25265, 25800  

Stocks to Watch:  

- HDFC Bank: Focus on loan growth and NIM trends  

- ICICI Bank: Strong retail lending traction  

- Axis Bank: Asset quality improvement potential  

Market Insights:  

Short-Term: Sideways to positive; break above 25265 may trigger upside  

Long-Term: Bullish bias if sustained above 200-day MA with improving fundamentals  

Disclaimer: Informational purposes only, not financial advice. Do your own research.

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Financial Services Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

Financial Services Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

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Financial Services Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

Financial Services Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

Financial Services Sector Analysis - 22.02.2025

 By Author: K KARTHIK RAJA  

Factors Affecting & Reasons:

* Global Market Sentiment: Recent volatility in global markets may impact Nifty Financial Services.  

* Interest Rate Trends: Banking and financial stocks are sensitive to RBI’s monetary policy.  

* Earnings Reports: Quarterly financial results of banks and NBFCs play a crucial role.  

* Institutional Inflows/Outflows: FII and DII activity significantly affects the sector.  

* Government Policies: Budget announcements and sector-specific reforms impact price movement.  

Key Watch:

- Support Levels: The 200-day moving average (~23348) is a key support zone.  

- Resistance Levels: The index faces resistance near 23624 (150-day MA).  

- RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 48.11, indicating a neutral momentum.  

- MACD Indicator: The MACD line (-3.2644) suggests bearish momentum in the short term.  

- CCI (Commodity Channel Index):  At -25.58, indicating a weak trend.  

Volume Analysis: 

- Recent Trading Volume: 65.058M, showing reduced participation.  

- Breakout Confirmation: Needs higher volume to confirm a trend reversal.  

- Accumulation Phase?: Volume spikes may indicate institutional buying.  

Chart Analysis & Observations:

- Trend: Long-term uptrend remains intact despite short-term pullback.  

- Moving Averages: Price is consolidating around key moving averages.  

- Parabolic SAR: Shows resistance near 23512, requiring a breakout for an uptrend continuation.  

- Historical Patterns: The index has followed a pattern of higher highs and higher lows.  

Dow Theory Chart Analysis:

* Primary Trend: The index continues to show a long-term bullish trend with higher highs and higher lows.  

* Secondary Trend: A short-term consolidation phase is forming, indicating potential breakout or correction.  

* Market Phases: Currently in an accumulation phase, suggesting potential buying interest at support levels.  

* Volume Confirmation: A breakout with strong volume will validate a trend continuation, while weak volume may indicate a false breakout.  

Market Insights (Short-Term & Long-Term View):

* Short-Term: Expect sideways consolidation unless a breakout above 23624 occurs.  

* Long-Term: Bullish trend remains intact; buying opportunities near the 200-day MA.  

- Outlook: Watch for triggers like RBI policy updates, earnings reports, and global cues.  

* Stocks to Watch:

1. HDFC Bank (HDFCBANK)  – Key support near ₹1500; needs a breakout above ₹1550 for bullish momentum.  

2. ICICI Bank (ICICIBANK) – Trading near ₹1000; watch for a move above ₹1020 for further upside.  

3. Kotak Mahindra Bank (KOTAKBANK) – Consolidating near ₹1750; a breakout above ₹1800 could signal strength.  

4. State Bank of India (SBIN) – Strong support at ₹600; bullish above ₹620.  

5. Bajaj Finance (BAJFINANCE) – Testing ₹7000 levels; watch for volume confirmation on upmove.  

  

Disclaimer:

This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial expert before making any investment decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

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Media Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja - Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

Media Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja - Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

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Media Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja - Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

Media Sector Analysis K Karthik Raja - Rupeedesk Share Market Training - 22.02.2025

Media Sector Analysis - 22.02.2025

By K Karthik Raja  

Factors Affecting & Reasons: 

- Declining Advertisement Revenue: Weak consumer spending and a shift toward digital platforms continue to pressure traditional media revenues.  

- Regulatory Pressures: Potential changes in broadcasting regulations and FDI policies may affect operational margins.  

- OTT Platform Competition: The rise of OTT platforms is eroding traditional TV viewership and advertising share.  

- Economic Environment: A global slowdown and soft domestic consumption trends weigh on the media sector.  

- Rising Content Costs: Higher production costs are squeezing profitability.  

Key Watch:

- M&A developments, particularly in broadcasting and digital platforms.  

- Festive and event-driven advertisement spending trends.  

- Regulatory announcements impacting media ownership and content distribution.  

- Corporate earnings guidance and management commentary.  

Volume Analysis:

- Recent volume spike near support suggests possible institutional accumulation.  

- Persistent high volume during declines signals caution, as bearish sentiment dominates.  

- Watch for volume confirmation during any rebound for trend reversal validation.  

Chart Analysis & Observations:  

- Trend: Persistent downtrend with lower highs and lows since 2018.  

- Moving Averages: 

  - Trading below 50-day (1706.22), 150-day (1928.04), and 200-day (1934.70) MAs indicates continued bearishness.  

  - No significant bullish crossover patterns yet.  

- Indicators:

  - RSI (14) at 33.09: Approaching oversold territory, signaling a potential short-term bounce.  

  - CCI (50) at -108.40: Reinforces the prevailing bearish momentum.  

  - MACD: Strong negative divergence indicates downward pressure persists.  

- Support & Resistance:  

  - Immediate support: 1485; break below may lead toward the 1400 zone.  

  - Key resistance: 1567, followed by 1706 and 1934 for a long-term trend shift.  

Stocks to Watch:

- Zee Entertainment: Monitor merger progress and potential regulatory decisions affecting price action.  

- Sun TV: Focus on upcoming quarterly earnings and advertisement revenue trends.  

- Network18: Could benefit from sector consolidation and digital growth strategies.  

Market Insights:

Short-Term View (1-3 months):

- Bearish bias to persist unless the index sustains above 1567 on strong volumes.  

- Oversold indicators point to a possible technical rebound, though resistance at 1706 may cap upside.  

Long-Term View (6-12 months):

- A clear reversal requires the index to break and hold above the  200-day MA (1934).  

- Continued caution advised; focus on companies executing successful digital transitions.  

- Positive industry catalysts and improved fundamentals are essential for sustained recovery.  

  

Disclaimer:

This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial expert before making any investment decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results.

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