Wednesday, December 14, 2016

USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK : 15.12.2016

USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK : 15.12.2016
NIFTY FUT  TREND             : SELL ZONE
BANKNIFTY FUT  TREND  : SELL ZONE

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USD/JPY. Pair after opening at 114.82 and made low of 115.47 and saw some sidewise session yesterday after a bearish candle few days back were the pair has created a shooting star pattern with some divergence in indicators but it continuing with the upward trend for past many days 114.70 is a key level , and the pair has taken out the resistance so likely to see some sidewise activity today gap up so intraday is a opportunity to buy.

Fundamental Overview

Yen is trading at 117.38, losing the most against the US dollar in yesterday’s trade. With the policy divergence back in play, expect the Dollar strength to continue for the time being and pullback if any would be limited. We are staring at a possibility of 120.00 in the near term once fiscal policy expansion begins to roll out.
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GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK : 15.16.2016

GBP/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK : 15.16.2016
NIFTY FUT  TREND             : SELL ZONE
BANKNIFTY FUT  TREND  : SELL ZONE

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GBP/USD. Pair after opening at 1.2681 made a high of 1.2701, and seen some selling from the higher levels and but the pair respected the lower levels of 1.2550 few days back now violated that so that range is violated so rise is an opportunity to sell and pair, so intraday apply that strategy to sell at rise.

Fundamental Overview

Pound is trading at 1.2540, after trading above 1.27 before the FED statement. FED surprise confidence in the economy drove the US dollar against all the majors in yesterday’s trade. UK calendar is packed with data and the BOE interest rate decision is also due. Expect no surprises but a continuance of the neutral tone will aid some limited recovery in Pound.

Economic Data & News

TIME COUNTRY DATA ACTUAL SURV PREVIOUS
15:00:00 GBP Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) 6.10% 7.60%
15:00:00 GBP Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.10% 2.00%
15:00:00 GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) 0.20% 1.90%
17:30:00 GBP BoE MPC vote cut (Dec) 0 0
17:30:00 GBP BoE MPC vote hike (Dec) 0 0
17:30:00 GBP BoE MPC vote unchanged (Dec) 9 9
17:30:00 GBP Interest Rate Decision (Dec) 0.25% 0.25%
17:30:00 GBP BoE QE Total (Dec) 435B 435B
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EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK : 15.12.2016

EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK : 15.12.2016
NIFTY FUT  TREND             : SELL ZONE
BANKNIFTY FUT  TREND  : SELL ZONE

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EUR/USD. Pair after opening at 1.0625 Made a high of 1.0670 and saw the pair trading with some side hovering near 1.0650 and trading in the range of 1.06-1.0650 mark after selling pressure few days back were it tested near levels of 1.05 and in morning violated the said levels will see some more action with bias towards lower side so rise shall be an opportunity to sell the pair.

Fundamental Overview

Euro is trading at 1.0510, falling from near the 1.07 levels that were seen before the FOMC statement. Euro made a low of 1.0467 in the Asian session as the FED dot plot surprised market participants. Now that the FED policy is off and with no major news till the year end, recovery if any would be shallow and every rise should be used to sell.

Economic Data & News

TIME COUNTRY DATA ACTUAL SURV PREVIOUS
17:30:00 EUR ECB LTRO
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USDINR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK : 15.12.2016

USDINR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK : 15.12.2016
NIFTY FUT  TREND             : SELL ZONE
BANKNIFTY FUT  TREND  : SELL ZONE

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USDINR, the pair after opening at 67.57 and made a high of 67.64 and saw some selling at last hour of the trade after taken supports from the lower levels in the pair ,but the pair having demand at lower levels and likely to see some short covering coming if sustain above 68.00 mark in coming days.

Fundamental Overview

US dollar index is trading at 102.22, after the US FED played along the market expectations of a 0.25% hike but dropped a positive surprise by stretching the dot plot forecast to include three more hikes in 2017. The statement noted the improvement in employment and inflation, opening doors for additional fiscal and monetary stimulus in the days ahead. Expect the US dollar to continue rising higher into the year end.

Economic Data & News

TIME COUNTRY DATA ACTUAL SURV PREVIOUS
19:00:00 USD Core CPI (YoY) (Nov) 2.20% 2.10%
19:00:00 USD Core CPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.20% 0.10%
19:00:00 USD CPI (MoM) (Nov) 0.20% 0.40%
19:00:00 USD Current Account (Q3) -111.6B -119.9B
19:00:00 USD Initial Jobless Claims 255K 258K
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Rupee opens 33 paise lower at 67.76/USD after Fed's hawkish tone : 15.12.2016

Rupee opens 33 paise lower at 67.76/USD after Fed's hawkish tone : 15.12.2016
The Indian rupee has opened at 67.76 against the US dollar, down 33 paise from previous close after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rate and its commentary was more hawkish than expected.
NIFTY FUT  TREND             : BUY ZONE
BANKNIFTY FUT  TREND  : BUY ZONE

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The Indian rupee has opened at 67.76 against the US dollar, down 33 paise from previous close after the Federal Reserve hiked interest rate and its commentary was more hawkish than expected. Kotak Mahindra Bank says as expected, US Federal Reserve hiked Fed Funds rate by 25 bps overnight. The US central bank set a range of 0.50-0.75 percent and anticipated three rate hikes each in 2017, 2018 and 2019. However, the tone was more hawkish than what was priced in by the market resulting in further dollar strength across the board, Shenoi says. He sees the trading range between 67.70 and 68 against the US dollar for the day. The US dollar strengthened across the board, its index hitting the highest level in nearly 14 years, further weighing on oil and other commodities priced in the US currency. Johanna Chua of Citi says investors are likely to persist with long USD strategies against emerging market currencies, reloading these trades in the instances where they prematurely took profits, and joining the consensus where they were previously skeptical or were merely waiting for better entry levels. Although there remains considerable uncertainty about President-elect Trump's tax and trade policies, investors are likely to take comfort in the belief that that the majority of likely scenarios offer continued support to the Dollar, she feels.
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FREE EURINR TIPS 2nd SESSION : 15.12.2016

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 ( Paper Trading Practice for Currency Segment USDINR/EURINR/GBPINR/JPYINR )


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10.30AM : Buy USDINR (NOV) SA 67.85 SL 67.74 Target 67.95 / 68.03 / 68.11
10.30AM : Sell USDINR (NOV) SB 67.69 SL 67.80 Target 67.59 / 67.51 / 67.43

10.30AM : Buy EURINR (NOV) SA 71.42 SL 71.31 Target 71.52 / 71.60 / 71.68
10.30AM : Sell EURINR (NOV) SB 71.26 SL 71.37 Target 71.16 / 71.08 / 71.00

10.30AM : Buy GBPINR (NOV) SA 85.11 SL 85.00 Target 85.21 / 85.29 / 85.37
10.30AM : Sell GBPINR (NOV) SB 84.95 SL 85.06 Target 84.85 / 84.77 / 84.69

10.30AM : Buy JPYINR (NOV) SA 57.87 SL 57.76 Target 57.97 / 58.05 / 58.13
10.30AM : Sell JPYINR (NOV) SB 57.71 SL 57.82 Target 57.61 / 57.53 / 57.45

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Rupee to open weaker, bond yield seen in 6.43-6.48% range : 15.16.2016

Rupee to open weaker, bond yield seen in 6.43-6.48% range : 15.16.2016
Kotak Mahindra Bank expects the USD-INR to open weaker and the trading range is seen between 67.70 and 68 against the US dollar for the day.
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US Federal Reserve hiked Fed Funds rate by 25 bps overnight. However the tone was more hawkish than what was priced in by the market resulting in further dollar strength across the board, he adds. He expects the USD-INR to open weaker and the trading range is seen between 67.70 and 68 against the US dollar for the day. Sentiment in the bond market is expected to be bearish today. The 10-year benchmark bond yield is expected to trade in a range of 6.43-6.48 percent for the day, he feels.
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FREE USDINR TIPS 1st SESSION : 15.12.2015

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 ( Paper Trading Practice for Currency Segment USDINR/EURINR/GBPINR/JPYINR )


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9.30AM : Buy USDINR (NOV) SA 67.84 SL 67.73 Target 67.94 / 68.02 / 68.10
9.30AM : Sell USDINR (NOV) SB 67.68 SL 67.79 Target 67.58 / 67.50 / 67.42

9.30AM : Buy EURINR (NOV) SA 71.44 SL 71.33 Target 71.54 / 71.62 / 71.70
9.30AM : Sell EURINR (NOV) SB 71.28 SL 71.39 Target 71.18 / 71.10 / 71.02

9.30AM : Buy GBPINR (NOV) SA 85.15 SL 85.04 Target 85.25 / 85.33 / 85.41
9.30AM : Sell GBPINR (NOV) SB 84.99 SL 85.10 Target 84.89 / 84.81 / 84.73

9.30AM : Buy JPYINR (NOV) SA 57.94 SL 57.83 Target 58.04 / 58.12 / 58.20
9.30AM : Sell JPYINR (NOV) SB 57.78 SL 57.89 Target 57.68 / 57.60 / 57.52

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Free Currency Tips India : 15.12.2016

Free Currency Tips India : 15.12.2016

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