USDJPY Trend Reversal or More Downside Expert Insights!
USDJPY Trend Reversal or More Downside Expert Insights!
USDJPY Trend Reversal or More Downside Expert Insights!
USDJPY Trend Reversal or More Downside Expert Insights!
K Karthik Raja (Market Educator & Technical Analyst)
MCA | MBA | M.Com | MSc Psychology | PGJMC | CST | MDAT | CFA Pursuant
Dow Theory
- Primary trend: The price has been in a downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows.
- Secondary trend: A recent recovery attempt was seen but faced resistance near the 200-day MA.
- Minor trend: Short-term price action shows signs of selling pressure as it moves below key moving averages.
Volume Analysis
- Volume is unavailable in the image, but price action suggests lack of strong buying momentum.
- Declining volume on rallies suggests weak bullish conviction.
- If volume increases on breakdowns, it could confirm further bearish movement.
Upcoming Events
- Economic data: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, CPI, and Japan’s BOJ policy decisions can influence USD/JPY.
- Interest rate decisions: Any change in U.S. Federal Reserve or BOJ policy could create significant movement.
- Geopolitical factors: Risk-off sentiment could favor JPY as a safe-haven currency.
Trend Confirmation
- 50, 150, and 200 moving averages are aligned in a bearish formation, suggesting continued downside.
- RSI (32.86): Approaching oversold territory but still trending lower.
- CCI (-106.38): Suggests strong bearish momentum.
- MACD: Bearish crossover with a declining histogram, indicating continued weakness.
- ADX (22.20): Indicates a weak trend, meaning the market might consolidate before making a decisive move.
Final Takeaway
- Bearish bias dominates as price is trading below moving averages.
- If USD/JPY breaks below 149.00, it could trigger a further downside move.
- A bullish reversal requires a breakout above 150.00 to confirm trend shift.
Breakout Strategy (Bullish)
- Entry: Above 150.00 (confirmation of breakout)
- Stop-loss: 149.50 (below breakout level)
- Target 1: 150.50 | Target 2: 151.00
Breakdown Strategy (Bearish)
- Entry: Below 149.00 (confirmation of breakdown)
- Stop-loss: 149.50 (above resistance)
- Target 1: 148.50 | Target 2: 148.00
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a professional before making investment decisions.
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