USD/CHF Breakout or Fakeout? Don’t Get Trapped!
USD/CHF Breakout or Fakeout? Don’t Get Trapped!
USD/CHF Breakout or Fakeout? Don’t Get Trapped!
USD/CHF Breakout or Fakeout? Don’t Get Trapped!
K Karthik Raja (Market Educator & Technical Analyst)
MCA | MBA | M.Com | MSc Psychology | PGJMC | CST | MDAT | CFA Pursuant
Volume Analysis
- Volume has increased during the recent downtrend, confirming selling pressure.
- A potential reversal may occur if buying volume spikes near support levels.
- Declining volume with price consolidation could indicate trend exhaustion.
Chart Pattern
- Price is forming a potential lower high, indicating bearish continuation.
- Possible head and shoulders or descending triangle pattern forming.
- Support level near 0.8840, resistance at 0.8950.
Trend Analysis
- The overall trend has shifted bearish, with lower highs and lower lows.
- The price is trading below key moving averages (50, 100, and 200), signaling weakness.
- RSI at 35.70 suggests nearing oversold territory, potential for short-term bounce.
Upcoming Events
- US economic data (inflation, NFP, GDP) could influence market sentiment.
- Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy and risk sentiment will impact CHF strength.
- Any shifts in global risk appetite could drive safe-haven demand for CHF.
Final Takeaway
- The bearish trend is strong, but RSI indicates a potential short-term pullback.
- Traders should wait for confirmation before entering positions.
- A breakdown below 0.8840 would confirm further downside potential.
Breakout Strategy (Bullish)
- Entry Above: 0.8950 | Stop Loss: 0.8900 (-0.56%)
- Target 1: 0.9000 (+0.56%) | Target 2: 0.9050 (+1.11%) | Target 3: 0.9100 (+1.67%)
- Trailing Stop: Adjust after reaching 0.9000.
Breakdown Strategy (Bearish)
- Entry Below: 0.8840 | Stop Loss: 0.8880 (+0.45%)
- Target 1: 0.8800 (-0.45%) | Target 2: 0.8750 (-1.02%) | Target 3: 0.8700 (-1.58%)
- Trailing Stop: Adjust after reaching 0.8800.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Please consult with a professional before making investment decisions.
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