Trend Reversal or Fakeout? USD/CHF Analysis You Can’t Miss!
Trend Reversal or Fakeout? USD/CHF Analysis You Can’t Miss!
Trend Reversal or Fakeout? USD/CHF Analysis You Can’t Miss!
Trend Reversal or Fakeout? USD/CHF Analysis You Can’t Miss!
K Karthik Raja (Market Educator & Technical Analyst)
MCA | MBA | M.Com | MSc Psychology | PGJMC | CST | MDAT | CFA Pursuant
Volume Analysis
- Volume appears to spike at key price movements, indicating strong participation.
- There is no clear increasing or decreasing trend in volume, suggesting market indecision.
Dow Theory
- Primary Trend: Downtrend (from mid-Feb to early March), followed by a consolidation phase.
- Secondary Trend: Recent sideways movement with small rallies, hinting at potential trend reversal.
- Minor Trends: Multiple short-term pullbacks and recoveries within the broader trend.
Chart Pattern
- Possible inverse head and shoulders forming, signaling a potential bullish reversal.
- Multiple small higher lows, indicating some buying pressure.
Trend Confirmation Indicators
- Moving Averages: Price recently moving above shorter MAs, but still below the long-term MA (green line).
- RSI (14): 58.77 - indicates neutral to slightly bullish momentum.
- Momentum (14): 100.05 - slightly positive, confirming mild bullishness.
Upcoming Events to Watch
- Economic news related to USD & CHF (Interest rate decisions, inflation data).
- Any geopolitical developments that could impact forex volatility.
Final Takeaway
- The market is consolidating with a potential bullish bias.
- A breakout above 0.8845-0.8850 may confirm bullish momentum.
- A breakdown below 0.8790 would signal renewed bearish control.
Breakout Strategy (Bullish)
- Entry: Above 0.8850 (confirmation of breakout)
- Stoploss: Below 0.8820 (recent support)
- Target 1: 0.8900 | Target 2: 0.8950.
Breakdown Strategy (Bearish)
- Entry: Below 0.8790 (confirmation of breakdown)
- Stoploss: Above 0.8825
- Target 1: 0.8750 | Target 2: 0.8700.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a professional before making investment decisions.
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