Trend Confirmation How to Spot the Next USDJPY Move!
Trend Confirmation How to Spot the Next USDJPY Move!
Trend Confirmation How to Spot the Next USDJPY Move!
Trend Confirmation How to Spot the Next USDJPY Move!
K Karthik Raja (Market Educator & Technical Analyst)
MCA | MBA | M.Com | MSc Psychology | PGJMC | CST | MDAT | CFA Pursuant
Trend analysis
- Short-term trend: Price is trading above the 50-period MA (150.66), indicating short-term bullish momentum.
- Medium-term trend: Price is hovering around the 150-period MA (150.03), showing a neutral to slightly bullish trend.
- Long-term trend: Price is approaching the 200-period MA (149.85) which could act as strong support levels.
- Conclusion: The pair has recovered from a recent downtrend, showing signs of potential upside if it sustains above key moving averages.
Upcoming events to watch
- US Federal Reserve meeting: Interest rate decisions could impact USD strength.
- Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy updates: Any intervention or policy shift could impact JPY movement.
- US inflation data: CPI, PPI, and other indicators will influence Fed decisions and USD strength.
- Global risk sentiment: Safe-haven demand for JPY could rise if uncertainty increases.
Observations
- RSI (14) at 50.11 – neutral zone, suggesting no strong momentum yet.
- CCI at -26.96 – bearish bias but close to neutral, indicating market indecision.
- MACD: slightly negative with MACD at -0.0126 and signal line at -0.022, showing weak momentum.
- ADX at 12.27 – weak trend strength, indicating consolidation before a breakout or breakdown.
Trend confirmation
- If USD/JPY stays above 150.66 (50 MA), it could confirm a short-term bullish trend.
- A break below 149.85 (200 MA) would signal a possible reversal.
- RSI above 55 would strengthen the bullish case, while a drop below 45 would support a bearish scenario.
Final takeaway
- USD/JPY is at a crucial resistance zone around 150.70.
- A breakout above 151.00 could trigger a strong bullish move.
- A breakdown below 149.85 could lead to renewed selling pressure.
Breakout strategy (bullish)
- Entry: above 151.00 | Stoploss: below 150.30.
- Target 1: 151.50 | Target 2: 152.00.
Breakdown strategy (bearish)
- Entry: below 149.80 | Stoploss: above 150.50.
- Target 1: 149.00 | Target 2: 148.50.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a professional before making investment decisions.
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