EURUSD at a Critical Level – Will It Breakout or Breakdown ?
EURUSD at a Critical Level – Will It Breakout or Breakdown ?
EURUSD at a Critical Level – Will It Breakout or Breakdown ?
EURUSD at a Critical Level – Will It Breakout or Breakdown ?
K Karthik Raja (Market Educator & Technical Analyst)
MCA | MBA | M.Com | MSc Psychology | PGJMC | CST | MDAT | CFA Pursuant
Chart Pattern
- The price action is forming a consolidation pattern after an uptrend.
- Moving Averages (MAs):
- The 50-MA (1.0807) and 150-MA (1.0803) are near the current price, acting as support levels.
- The 200-MA (1.0821) is providing resistance, indicating a possible range-bound movement.
- Trendline Resistance: The price is near a horizontal resistance zone around 1.0850.
Volume Analysis
- Volume is decreasing, which indicates a potential lack of strong momentum for a breakout.
- A sudden volume surge may confirm a breakout/breakdown direction.
Upcoming Events
- U.S. economic data releases (such as NFP, CPI, or Fed decisions) could bring volatility.
- ECB policy stance and Eurozone inflation figures might influence EUR/USD direction.
Observations
- RSI (14) at 49.68: Neutral, suggesting no immediate overbought/oversold conditions.
- MACD slightly positive but lacking momentum.
- ADX (14) at 23.19: Weak trend strength, indicating consolidation.
Final Takeaway
- The pair is consolidating around the 1.0819-1.0850 zone.
- A breakout above 1.0850 could trigger a bullish move.
- A breakdown below 1.0800 may confirm a bearish trend.
Breakout Strategy (Bullish)
Entry: Above 1.0855 (confirmation with strong volume).
Stop-Loss: Below 1.0800.
Target 1: 1.0900 | Target 2: 1.0950.
Breakdown Strategy (Bearish)
Entry: Below 1.0800 (confirmation with strong volume).
Stop-Loss: Above 1.0855.
Target 1: 1.0750 | Target 2: 1.0700.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a professional before making investment decisions.
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