Aussie Dollar Outlook: Bullish Rally or Bearish Trap?
Aussie Dollar Outlook: Bullish Rally or Bearish Trap?
Aussie Dollar Outlook: Bullish Rally or Bearish Trap?
Aussie Dollar Outlook: Bullish Rally or Bearish Trap?
K Karthik Raja (Market Educator & Technical Analyst)
MCA | MBA | M.Com | MSc Psychology | PGJMC | CST | MDAT | CFA Pursuant
- Volume analysis
- Volume has been relatively stable, with a slight increase during recent price movements.
- A spike in volume indicates increased trader participation, potentially confirming trend direction.
- Low volume on pullbacks suggests weak selling pressure, which supports the bullish case.
- Upcoming events
- Australian economic data, including employment reports and inflation figures, could impact AUD/USD.
- U.S. Federal Reserve policies and economic indicators like GDP, inflation, and interest rates may influence price action.
- Any geopolitical or global trade developments could create volatility in the pair.
- Dow theory
- The market has been in a long-term downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows.
- Recent price action suggests a potential shift, as the price is attempting to form a higher low.
- If the price surpasses the previous swing high, a trend reversal may be confirmed.
- Final takeaway
- The current price action suggests a consolidation phase with potential for a breakout.
- A strong push above resistance could indicate a bullish trend shift.
- A breakdown below key support may signal continued bearish momentum.
- Breakout strategy (bullish)
- Entry: Above recent highs (~0.6350) | Stop-loss: Below key support (~0.6250) | Targets: 0.6400 / 0.6450 / 0.6500
- Confirmation: Breakout with strong volume
- Breakdown strategy (bearish)
- Entry: Below recent support (~0.6200) | Stop-loss: Above recent highs (~0.6300) | Targets: 0.6150 / 0.6100 / 0.6050
- Confirmation: Strong selling pressure and close below moving averages
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Please consult with a professional before making investment decisions.
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