Saturday, April 8, 2017

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017

Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017


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Oil Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.04.2017
  www.rupeedesk.in )

Stocks of public sector oil refining and retiling companies--Indian Oil Corp Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd, and Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd--are expected to rise next week, as the underlying sentiment for these stocks continues to be positive. Apart from strength on technical charts, these companies are backed by strong fundamentals, including rising domestic demand for fuels and robust refining and marketing margins, which lends them a generally positive fundamental outlook for the medium to long term. In the absence of any major sectoral triggers, crude oil prices, news flow, and the broad market sentiment could impact the stocks of oil companies. While prices of crude oil witnessed some weakness in recent weeks, they may strengthen next week on hope of extension of production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, as well as other major producers. Supply outages and any prolonging of geopolitical conflicts into next week are also likely to support oil prices. However, as the rupee is likely to retain its strength against the dollar next week, it might restrict any sharp gains in domestic prices of crude oil. A pick-up in refinery activity is also seen supporting crude oil prices, as it has renewed hope that record high crude oil inventories in the US will decline. Stocks of upstream players such as Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd, Cairn India Ltd, and Oil India Ltd, may trade on a positive note due to a rise in oil prices. But the gains may be capped, given they are bound to be hit by a weaker dollar against the rupee. This is because these companies price oil and gas in dollars and a weaker greenback means lower price realisation in rupee terms. On the other hand, refining companies stand to gain from a weaker dollar, as it would reduce their outgo towards purchase of crude oil and gas. As far as technical charts are concerned, the three state-owned oil marketing companies are likely to trade with a positive bias next week, with Indian Oil being the top pick. The general outlook for upstream stocks ONGC and Oil India was positive for next week. The ONGC stock is likely to trade in a range, but with a positive bias.

Source : Cogencis Information Services Ltd.