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========================================================================Bank Stocks Outlook for the week – 10 to 14.11.2014
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Benchmark share indices are expected to be in a range and may trade with some caution next week. The market will take cues from a slew of economic data to be released on November 12. The Central Statistics Office will release the industrial production data for September and the consumer price index based inflation data for October on Wednesday. Indian equity markets are expected to trade with caution next week. Market participants will await crucial CPI data for Oct and IIP for Sept which will give pace of industrial production. The 50-share Nifty yesterday ended at 8337.00, down 1.30 points from Wednesday's close, and the S&P BSE Sensex ended at 27868.63, down 47.25 or 0.2%.
The industrial production data for September will be closely watched by market participants. The IIP for August was at 0.4%, against expectation of 2.3%. In September, the inflation rate based on the Consumer Price Index fell to a record low of 6.46% from 7.73% a month ago and 7.20% estimated. CPI is expected to ease slightly as non-core inflation is seen easing on back of lower global crude prices. Banking, realty and auto sectors are seen in focus. We see consolidation in the market and expect it to move sideways in the next week.
Stocks of public sector banks are expected to see some correction as most small- and mid-cap public sector banks such as UCO Bank, Syndicate Bank and Corporation Bank have reported worsening asset quality. However, private sector lenders such as ICICI Bank and Axis Bank are expected to see further upside. Stocks of ICICI Bank and AxisBank yesterday ended up 0.8% at 1,684.70 rupees and 2.4% at 469.05 rupees, respectively.
We believe markets are in normal consolidation phase which usually happen post an exceptional move. And, participants, especially those who wish to trade and invest fresh, can consider this as an opportunity to buy stocks from private banking, auto, finance, and midcap space.
Stocks of Larsen & Toubro, that reported Jul-Sep results post market hours yesterday, the company posted a net profit of 8.6 bln rupees for the quarter ended September, against an estimate of 9.7 bln rupees. Investors may also exercise caution as the revenue growth estimate for 2014-15 (Apr-Mar) has been revised by the company to 10-15% from 15%. However, downside in the stock is expected to be limited as the company's net profit surged 7% on year