Thursday, December 5, 2019

USDINR : Fundamental View : 05.12.2019

USDINR : Fundamental View : 05.12.2019

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* Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.36 percent yesterday while the Dollar index decreased by 0.09 percent during the same time frame. Manufacturing PMI from India came in at 51.2 for Nov’19 against market expectations of 49.8. RBI will be holding their monetary policy meeting today and the market is expecting a 25bps rate cut.

* On the trade war front, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that trade talks with China were going “very well,” sounding more positive than on Tuesday when he said a trade deal might have to wait until after the 2020 U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile, ADP non-farm payroll data from US came in at 67000 against market expectations of 137000 for Nov’19. Nonmanufacturing PMI from US came in at 53.9 against market expectations of 54.5 for Nov’19. Services PMI from US came in line with market expectations at 51.6 for Nov’19.

* USDINR is expected to move sideways in today’s session.
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EURINR : Technical View : 05.12.2019

EURINR : Technical View : 05.12.2019

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 The EURINR closed in a negative note and fell by 0.27% during its previous trading session.

 On the daily timeframe, the pair has sustained above its falling trend line, which will act as a support in the near term.

 Moreover, It has closed above the 20*50 Day EMA, which signals bullish strength.

 Additionally, the pair’s Stochastic (6) has made a positive crossover which indicates control to the bulls.

 So based on the above technical structure, we expect a bullish move in EURINR towards 79.62 level.
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GBPINR : Technical View : 05.12.2019

GBPINR : Technical View : 05.12.2019

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 GBPINR has shined rising by 0.27% during it’s last trading session.

 Moreover, on the daily timeframe has been trading in its upward sloping channel, which signals the counter is in a uptrend.

 Moreover, the pair has sustained above its 20*50 EMA confirming positive momentum in the pair.

 Also, a momentum indicator Stochastic (6) has been moving with a positive crossover, which signifies power to the bulls.

 So based on the above technical structure, we expect bullish move in GBPINR future towards 93.75 level. 
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JPYINR : Technical View : 05.12.2019

JPYINR : Technical View : 05.12.2019

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 During it’s previous session JPYINR witnessed pressure closing lower by 0.12% for the day.

 But, the pair after breaking out from the falling trend line has sustained above it, which signals positive strength in the counter.

 Furthermore, the price has sustained the 20*50 EMA, which confirms that the pair is in a strong uptrend.

 Additionally, momentum indicator Stochastic (6) has shown a positive crossover, which indicates bullish power.

 So based on the above technical structure, we expect sideways to bullish move in JPYINR towards 66.21. level.
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USDINR : Technical View : 05.12.2019

USDINR : Technical View : 05.12.2019

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 The USDINR pair closed on a negative note falling by 0.24% during the last trading session.

 Also, the price has been trading below its falling trend line, which is resisting it’s up move.

 Moreover, the price has been trading below its Parabolic SAR which signals bearish control in the counter.

 Additionally, the momentum indicator Stochastic (6) has shown a negative crossover, which indicates that the bears are in power.

 Hence, we expect bearish move in USDINR future towards 71.47 level.
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Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Diamond : Technical View : 05.12.2019

Diamond : Technical View : 05.12.2019

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Diamond 1Ct on ICEX settled down -0.39% at 3580.45 as market remained cautious due to trade war and Hong Kong unrest. Specific demand creating high inventory of less popular qualities. De Beers 2018 global market estimate finds rough sales +3% to $16.9B, production volume -3% to 154M cts. and value +2% to $17.4B, polished demand +2% to $25.3B, diamond-jewelry demand +2% to $76B.

Insight Report outlines changing attitudes toward love and their impact on the industry. De Beers has restated its estimation of global diamond-jewelry sales following a new study valuing the diamond content in jewelry purchases since the 2008 recession. The group also revised its production data to reflect lower output than previously believed, stemming from an overestimation of the artisanal mining sector.

Global diamond jewelry demand rose 2.4% to $76 billion in 2018, driven by growth in the US and China, De Beers said in its annual Diamond Insight Report published last week. However, that figure was below the $82 billion it had originally reported for 2017, as the company gained new insight relating to the elements that are included when valuing jewelry, De Beers explained.

Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 9.74% to settled at 68136 while prices down -13.9 rupees, now Diamond 1Ct is getting support at 3574 and below same could see a test of 3568 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 3592, a move above could see prices testing 3604

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Rubber : Technical View : 05.12.2019

Rubber : Technical View : 05.12.2019

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Rubber on ICEX settled down -0.24% at 13244 as demand from tyre makers has been subdued due to a slowdown in the domestic automobile sector. India's natural rubber imports for September fell 26.4% on month to 42,550 tn, Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics data showed.

Vietnam gained nearly 1.8 billion U.S. dollars from exporting over 1.3 million tons of rubber in the first 10 months of this year, seeing respective year-on-year increases of 6.4 percent and 7.6 percent. China was Vietnam's largest importer of rubber in the period, accounting for over 65 percent of the total value, tailed by India and South Korea, according to the General Department of Vietnam Customs.

Rubber Board has revised downwards the production, consumption and import target for the current fiscal year for natural rubber keeping in mind the uncertainties in the global economy. The projection for production in 2019-20 has been revised to 730,000 tonnes, a decrease of 20000 tonnes from the earlier target. The new consumption figure for the year is 1140,000 tonnes against earlier 1270,000 tonnes. Considering the decline in import, the target for the year has been revised downwards by 85,000 tonnes to 415,000 tonnes.

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed remain unchanged in open interest by 0% to settled at 197 while prices down -32 rupees, now Rubber is getting support at 13200 and below same could see a test of 13170 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 13260, a move above could see prices testing 13290.

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Steellong : Technical View : 05.12.2019

Steellong : Technical View : 05.12.2019

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Steellong on ICEX settled up 0.21% at 29260 on short covering after prices dropped as renewed trade uncertainties intensified risk aversion and weighed prices.

US President Donald Trump has signed two bills supporting the Hong Kong protesters into law, and this fueled trade deal doubts. China's stainless steel output in November is seen falling 2% from the previous month to 2.4 million tonnes and could fall further to 2.37 million tonnes in December. Handan, a major steelmaking hub in north China’s Hebei province, will activate an orange alert for heavy air pollution for three days starting from 12:00 CST November 28.

 Under the secondhighest pollution warning in China's four-tier system, polluting enterprises including steel mills are required to cut or suspend production, and heavy-duty trucks with lower emission standards are banned from the road. China’s crude steel production dipped for a second straight month to 81.5 million mt in October, according to data from the World Steel Association (Worldsteel) reported. This was 0.6% lower than the same period a year earlier.

The Worldsteel report also revealed that crude steel production across 64 countries decreased 2.8% from a year ago to 151.5 million mt in October, barely changed from September. Inventories of construction steel rebar in China shrank from a year ago for the first time in the second half of this year so far.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 3.11% to settled at 630 while prices up 60 rupees, now Steellong is getting support at 29150 and below same could see a test of 29050 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 29330, a move above could see prices testing 29410.

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Today Commodity Pivot Table : 05.12.2019

Today Commodity Pivot Table : 05.12.2019


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Diamond : Technical View : 05.12.2019

Diamond : Technical View : 05.12.2019

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On an hourly chart, the price closed with negative note during the last session.

However, It has sustained above the 21*50 days SMA’s and Parabolic Sar, which signifies power to the bulls.

Furthermore, the price has sustained above the Falling Trendline, which adds support in the counter.

Momentum indicators MACD has crossed above the zero level, which indicates bullishness.

As per the above technical structure; we expect bullish move in the counter.


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Crudeoil : Technical View : 05.12.2019

Crudeoil : Technical View : 05.12.2019

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On the daily chart, the price glittered 3.59% in the last session.

Moreover, the price has pulled back from the lower Bollinger Band, which indicates bullish trend may remain continue.

Furthermore, the price has also shifted above the 200 SMA which suggest rising prices.

In addition, momentum indicator RSI (14) has sustained above it’s 50 level which is positive for Crude Oil.

As per the above technical structure; we expect bullish move in the counter.


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Copper : Technical View : 05.12.2019

Copper : Technical View : 05.12.2019

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On the daily chart, the price has gained 0.82% during the last session.

However, the price has shifted below the horizontal trend line, which confirms bearish strength in the counter.

Furthermore, the price has sustained below the 50*20 day's SMA, which indicates control in the hands of the beers.

On the other hand, momentum indicator RSI(14) has been moving below the level 50, which may indicate bearish indication.

As per the above technical structure; we expect bearish move in the counter.

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Gold : Technical View : 05.12.2019

Gold : Technical View : 05.12.2019

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On an hourly chart, the price has gained 0.56% during the last session.

Moreover, the price has shifted above the median line of the Bollinger Band, which adds positive strength in the counter.

Furthermore, the price has shifted above the 21*50 days SMA’s and Parabolic Sar, which signify bullish sentiments for the counter.

Additionally, RSI(14) has sustained above the 50 level, which suggests rising prices in the near term.

As per the above technical structure; we expect a bullish move in the counter.

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Nifty-Sensex-Pre Market View - 05.12.2019: 09.00 Am

Nifty-Sensex-Pre Market View  - 05.12.2019: 09.00 Am
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Pre-Session: Negative start on cards; RBI policy outcome eyed
05/12/2019 08:34
Indian benchmarks are expected to start the day in red on Thursday. Investors will today await the outcome of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) fifth monetary policy meet of the financial year 2019-20 (FY20), due later in the day. The central bank is likely to deliver its sixth straight interest-rate cut to support economic growth. RBI has cut borrowing costs by 135 basis points (bps) so far in 2019 to a nine-year low of 5.15%.

Markets will also react to some developments in the telecom sector. First, Bharti Airtel has announced a $3-billion fund raising, including through QIPs, mainly to pay dues linked to the AGR as directed by the Supreme Court recently.

Secondly, Jio has followed Voda Idea and Airtel in raising tariff. Jio's updated tariff plans will be applicable from December 6.

In a crucial development yesterday, the Union Cabinet approved the launch of India’s first bond ETF which can be bought and sold like any listed security on the bourses.

On Wednesday, the 30-share benchmark index ended at 40850.29 up by 174.84 points or by 0.43 % and then NSE Nifty was at 12043.2 up by 49 points.


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Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Today's Sector News - 04.12.2019: 09.00 Am

Today's Sector News - 04.12.2019: 09.00 Am
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* AUTOMOBILE: Mercedes-Benz India on Tuesday launched a new generation of its luxury sport utility vehicle 'GLC' in petrol and diesel variants, starting at an ex-showroom price of 5.28 mln rupees.

* AVIATION: Airports Authority of India has invited bids from airlines under the regional connectivity scheme to run flights to Himalayan and Northeastern states, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Lakshadweep, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands, the Ministry of Civil Aviation said in a statement.

* BANKING: Loans of 172.52 bln rupees disbursed under the Pradhan Mantri MUDRA Yojana have turned non-performing, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman informed the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday.
- The government on Tuesday said public and private sector banks collectively wrote off 808.93 bln
rupees till September in the current financial year started April.
- Public sector banks disbursed 2.39 trln rupees in their outreach programmes in November, taking
the total amount of loans disbursed through the outreach programmes in the last two months at 4.91 trln rupees, the finance ministry said.

* INFRASTRUCTURE: Around 7 trln rupees rides on the Shiv Sena-led Maharashtra government's decision to review several high-profile infrastructure projects approved by the previous government, with a cabinet meeting on Tuesday putting many of them under the scanner.

* POWER: India's power generation is likely to have contracted for the third consecutive month in
November, going by the Central Electricity Authority's data on daily power generation.

* STEEL: Steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal's ArcelorMittal has approached the government seeking immunity from likely future investigations pertaining to Essar Steel and its erstwhile promoters, the Ruia family.

* TAXATION: The GST Council is likely to hold its next meeting in the second fortnight of December.

* TELECOMMUNICATION: Service providers will not accept requests for mobile number portability during Dec 10-15 to help the process of migration to a new system, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India said.

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Today Commodity Pivot Table : 04.12.2019

Today Commodity Pivot Table : 04.12.2019


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Diamond : Technical View : 04.12.2019

Diamond : Technical View : 04.12.2019

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On an hourly chart, the price closed with positive note during the last session.

Moreover, It has sustained above the 21*50 days SMA’s and Parabolic Sar, which signifies power to the bulls.

Furthermore, the price has sustained above the Falling Trendline, which adds support in the counter.

Momentum indicators MACD has crossed above the zero level, which indicates bullishness.

As per the above technical structure; we expect bullish move in the counter.

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Crudeoil : Technical View : 04.12.2019

Crudeoil : Technical View : 04.12.2019

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On the daily chart, the price gained 0.40% in the last session.

However, the price has shifted below the Parabolic SAR, which indicates bearish trend may remain continue.

Furthermore, the price has also shifted below the 200 SMA which suggest falling prices.

In addition, momentum indicator RSI (14) has sustained below it’s 50 level which is negative for Crude Oil.

As per the above technical structure; we expect bearish move in the counter.

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Copper : Technical View : 04.12.2019

Copper : Technical View : 04.12.2019

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On the daily chart, the price has slipped 0.82% during the last session.

Moreover, the price has shifted below the horizontal trend line, which confirms bearish strength in the counter.

Furthermore, the price has sustained below the 50*20 day's SMA, which indicates control in the hands of the beers.

On the other hand, momentum indicator RSI(14) has been moving below the level 50, which may indicate bearish indication.

As per the above technical structure; we expect bearish move in the counter.


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Gold : Technical View : 04.12.2019

Gold : Technical View : 04.12.2019

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On the daily chart, the price has gained 1.00% during the last session.

Moreover, the price has shifted above the median line of the Bollinger Band, which adds positive strength in the counter.

Furthermore, the price has shifted above the 21*50 days SMA’s and Parabolic Sar, which signify bullish sentiments for the counter.

Additionally, RSI(14) has sustained above the 50 level, which suggests rising prices in the near term.

As per the above technical structure; we expect a bullish move in the counter.

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Nifty-Sensex-Pre Market View - 04.12.2019: 09.00 Am

Nifty-Sensex-Pre Market View  - 04.12.2019: 09.00 Am
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Pre-Session: Sensex, Nifty likely to open in red on Wednesday
04/12/2019 08:36
Indian benchmarks are expected to start the day on a weaker note on Wednesday as market participants are likely to adopt a cautious stance after US President Donald Trump said that a trade deal with China might have to wait until after the 2020 presidential election, dashing hopes for a quick preliminary agreement. Besides, investors will await the outcome of the ongoing RBI policy meet, which is due tomorrow.

Further, investors will track global cues, currency and crude price movement, and foreign fund flow.

On Tuesday, the 30-share benchmark index ended at 40675.45 down by -126.72 points or by -0.31 % and then NSE Nifty was at 11994.2 down by -54 points.


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