Sunday, May 22, 2016

Forex - Yen gains further in Asia after trade data, May PMI


The yen gained further in Asia on Monday after trade data that showed wider than expected surplus, and a sharp drop in imports, with the G7 meeting of finance policymakers at the weekend not rattling foreign exchange markets.

Finance policymakers at the G7 agreed to avoid competitive devaluation, but shunned a call by Japan to stimulate economies with fiscal measures while seeking "balanced" fiscal, monetary and structural reform policies to support global growth.

USD/JPY traded at 109.79, down 0.31%, while AUD/USD traded at 0.7237, up 0.19%.
In Japan, the adjusted trade balance for April came in at a surplus of ¥430 billion, above the ¥270 billion surplus seen, while imports plunged 23.2%, more than the 19% drop expected and exports eased 10.1%, just a tad more than the 10% fall seen.
As well in Japan, the manufacturing PMI for May fell to 47.6, below the expected level of 48.3 and down from 48.2 in April.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.08% at 95.21.
Last week, the dollar rose to three-week highs against the yen on Friday amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as soon as next month, but slid against the euro as investors took profits in the wake of a recent rally.
The dollar was boosted after Wednesday minutes of the Federal Reserve’s April meeting indicated that interest rates could rise as soon as June.

Officials said a June rate hike would be appropriate if economic data indicated that growth was picking up in the second quarter and employment and inflation were firming. The U.S. central bank hiked rates in December for the first time in almost a decade.

The dollar received an additional boost as comments by Fed officials suggested that a rate hike could be in the offing. New York Fed President William Dudley said Thursday the U.S. economy could be strong enough to warrant a rate increase in June or July.

Higher interest rates would make the U.S. dollar more attractive to yield-seeking investors.
In the week ahead, the U.S. is to publish a revised estimate of first quarter growth on Friday, with analysts expecting an upward revision to GDP.

On Monday, the euro zone is to release survey data on private sector business activity. Financial markets in Canada will remain closed for the Victoria Day holiday.